# Continue short or preparing for accumulation. Whats left to short anyway.
patcapital.noti...5a44a3928245962?pvs=4
## BTC USD
**WEEKLY VIEW**
Constraint
1. SPX Topping
2. Fed Hiking Rates
3. SEC chasing CEX (Binance & Coinbase)
4. First time BTC is in recessionary period
5. Price twice crossing (roling over) MA 200
Chart Confluence & Analysis
1. MA 200 crossing price and breakdown again.
1. Historically, when btc price touch MA 200, it will react aggresively going above it, but however today price have cross under this important Moving Averages and one more time to cross under
2. This is very significant as it clearly showing that , in the past , majority was retail player that have been driving the market and now smart money (institution such Ark , MSTR, Tesla and wallstreet) moving in and controlling the market price action
2. Price confluencing crossing down multiple EMA and MA
1. EMA 21 & 12 crossing under MA 200 where all moving average and crossing each other
1. MACD cross under to bearish as a point of confluence
1. Everytime MACD cross bearish , price begin to turn bearish afterward,
2. Right now we have confirm the bearishness
1. Bollinger Band , Mid Range and price is still in range. High probability that this is a price deviation at high range and price coming back to play in the range. Price signalling for a pullback
1. Price right have been rejected at the top of boillinger band
2. Right now price have been crossing the midline of the bollinger band and confluencing with key reaction level which is at 21K
3. There is a high probability for price rebound at 21K and might for a head and shoulder ( dont quote me on this), i am just expecting for high point of confluence
4. After 30k have been rejected, clear cut from chart we can say that price is still in range after deviated from 26K level. At this point, just confirm that price have confirmed to stay within range.. Price deviation is almost similar like deviation at 14K
5. Based on wyckof logic, price have made selling climax and selling trap
1. We are right are waiting for all of the seller at trap to fully done and making them to fomo buy and making spring phase
4. Stoch RIS as a major point of confluence
- stoch can stay bearish for a long time period before making bullish movement.
Focus on this period
1. Small short position to avoid bearish bias during accumulation season
2. Focus on researching next bull market narrative and accumulating altcoin for standby next bull market
3. Spot buying BTC & Eth in multiple level as we cant to identify perfect bottom
**IS BINANCE US STILL SAFE ?**
**I strongly suggest you to move your funds out from Binance US.**
Risk is too high for keeping any money on it anymore. Apparently SEC is planning to FREEZE all assets from Binance US. People say it’s impossible but these guys have the power to do everything they want.
I don’t want you to panic. Far from it. I want you all to be safe. Unless there is a major issue with Binance at resolution, most of the time this just results in fines. They likely have to pay something and then decide if they even want to operate in the USA ever again.
**In the event of an escalation it’s possible withdrawals in and out to Binance US will be stopped. In a day your funds might be out of reach. For months. Or even Indefinitely.**
We don’t know how the situation will end. Maybe nothing will happen. **HOWEVER YOU ARE PREPARED AND SAFE. THAT IS ALL THAT MATTERS.**
Remember: This only applies to US residents. Internationally it will be less impactful than most people think. Su Europe, Asia and rest are safe. The USA is becoming stricter with regulation which means the growth is going to be outside the USA.
**WHAT ABOUT COINBASE?**
Binance US might lose all of its customers and the people interested in crypto will be forced into other US platforms. Coinbase will likely take a large portion of this customer base.
I expect Coinbase to be let off only with a fine. We know that BitMex had to pay $100M in 2021 for their illegal activities. **Source:** www.cftc.gov/Pr...eleases/8412-21?utm_source...
Even if the fine it’s above this value for Coinbase, they still have about $5B in cash and $3.4B in debt. Therefore, they have a ton of money to use in case they are enforced to pay the fine.
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...a1bd297/Untitled.png)
Coinbase is too big to fail. Too many off and on ramps for institutional flows are happening on there to close it. I think the reaction is made “serious” just to scare small investors out. It’s just smoke and mirrors.
**Conclusion**
**1.Volume will drop off next months.**
Even if people are using Binance US right now, the number of transactions will decline due to the headlines.
**2.Short term we are going to see more regulatory pressure taking place. Especially with transactions between banks and crypto exchanges.**
You’re already seeing big banks like Chase become hard to work with. Similar things are happening now in Australia.
**I strongly recommend you separating your accounts (one for yourself and another only for crypto) in order to not be affected by it.**
patcapital.noti...5a44a3928245962?pvs=4
## BTC USD
**WEEKLY VIEW**
Constraint
1. SPX Topping
2. Fed Hiking Rates
3. SEC chasing CEX (Binance & Coinbase)
4. First time BTC is in recessionary period
5. Price twice crossing (roling over) MA 200
Chart Confluence & Analysis
1. MA 200 crossing price and breakdown again.
1. Historically, when btc price touch MA 200, it will react aggresively going above it, but however today price have cross under this important Moving Averages and one more time to cross under
2. This is very significant as it clearly showing that , in the past , majority was retail player that have been driving the market and now smart money (institution such Ark , MSTR, Tesla and wallstreet) moving in and controlling the market price action
2. Price confluencing crossing down multiple EMA and MA
1. EMA 21 & 12 crossing under MA 200 where all moving average and crossing each other
1. MACD cross under to bearish as a point of confluence
1. Everytime MACD cross bearish , price begin to turn bearish afterward,
2. Right now we have confirm the bearishness
1. Bollinger Band , Mid Range and price is still in range. High probability that this is a price deviation at high range and price coming back to play in the range. Price signalling for a pullback
1. Price right have been rejected at the top of boillinger band
2. Right now price have been crossing the midline of the bollinger band and confluencing with key reaction level which is at 21K
3. There is a high probability for price rebound at 21K and might for a head and shoulder ( dont quote me on this), i am just expecting for high point of confluence
4. After 30k have been rejected, clear cut from chart we can say that price is still in range after deviated from 26K level. At this point, just confirm that price have confirmed to stay within range.. Price deviation is almost similar like deviation at 14K
5. Based on wyckof logic, price have made selling climax and selling trap
1. We are right are waiting for all of the seller at trap to fully done and making them to fomo buy and making spring phase
4. Stoch RIS as a major point of confluence
- stoch can stay bearish for a long time period before making bullish movement.
Focus on this period
1. Small short position to avoid bearish bias during accumulation season
2. Focus on researching next bull market narrative and accumulating altcoin for standby next bull market
3. Spot buying BTC & Eth in multiple level as we cant to identify perfect bottom
**IS BINANCE US STILL SAFE ?**
**I strongly suggest you to move your funds out from Binance US.**
Risk is too high for keeping any money on it anymore. Apparently SEC is planning to FREEZE all assets from Binance US. People say it’s impossible but these guys have the power to do everything they want.
I don’t want you to panic. Far from it. I want you all to be safe. Unless there is a major issue with Binance at resolution, most of the time this just results in fines. They likely have to pay something and then decide if they even want to operate in the USA ever again.
**In the event of an escalation it’s possible withdrawals in and out to Binance US will be stopped. In a day your funds might be out of reach. For months. Or even Indefinitely.**
We don’t know how the situation will end. Maybe nothing will happen. **HOWEVER YOU ARE PREPARED AND SAFE. THAT IS ALL THAT MATTERS.**
Remember: This only applies to US residents. Internationally it will be less impactful than most people think. Su Europe, Asia and rest are safe. The USA is becoming stricter with regulation which means the growth is going to be outside the USA.
**WHAT ABOUT COINBASE?**
Binance US might lose all of its customers and the people interested in crypto will be forced into other US platforms. Coinbase will likely take a large portion of this customer base.
I expect Coinbase to be let off only with a fine. We know that BitMex had to pay $100M in 2021 for their illegal activities. **Source:** www.cftc.gov/Pr...eleases/8412-21?utm_source...
Even if the fine it’s above this value for Coinbase, they still have about $5B in cash and $3.4B in debt. Therefore, they have a ton of money to use in case they are enforced to pay the fine.
!(s3-us-west-2.amazona...a1bd297/Untitled.png)
Coinbase is too big to fail. Too many off and on ramps for institutional flows are happening on there to close it. I think the reaction is made “serious” just to scare small investors out. It’s just smoke and mirrors.
**Conclusion**
**1.Volume will drop off next months.**
Even if people are using Binance US right now, the number of transactions will decline due to the headlines.
**2.Short term we are going to see more regulatory pressure taking place. Especially with transactions between banks and crypto exchanges.**
You’re already seeing big banks like Chase become hard to work with. Similar things are happening now in Australia.
**I strongly recommend you separating your accounts (one for yourself and another only for crypto) in order to not be affected by it.**