MrRenev

The predictability of crowds

Long
INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
I don't master this subject, I don't have much to write about it, so this will be short.

This is how trends work in life, and there are real people that get paid to study this:

The people that study crowds compare behavior to sheep a lot. Talking about sheep do you know these guys came up with mecanical sheep that they can activate (run in a direction) to move the entire herd in that direction?! Also that works with fish, teleguided fish! Even with humans when there is a movement of panic, an easy one to not reproduce is people sitting at bars hanging around and a group of (terrified-looking) people start running in a direction, bystanders are going to start running in that direction too, but that's kind of cheating, people have to.

There are interesting facts about crowds, such as from 6 people per square meter, people start dying. Not sure how this impacts Bitcoin but it's a fun fact.

What's interesting is how bacteria and virus multiply with a similar pattern, first slow, then up up up, until death that is down down down.


That's it, that's all I know on the subject.

Some stuff to read:
ifioque.com/social-p...ogy/contagion-theory
www.hopeschooloflead...iology_section_6.pdf


"The CONTAGION THEORY proposes that crowds exert a hypnotic influence on their members. The hypnotic influence, combined with the anonymity of belonging to a large group of people, results in irrational, emotionally charged behavior."
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There are actually science documents explaining that people are mindless sheep.

There is also a videomaker that uploads videos on the subject, I don't know if I can share, and it is in french.


Imo in the short term BTC reached inflexion point. Can go to 200k in a straight line. Could happen by Dec 31. Who knows. That's "only" an increase of 200%, BTC did that in less than 4 weeks in 2017. Next move may be the start of "death", at some point BTC became too big to not fail. Slow bear market then straight line (well that's what everything always does). But might not just be the usual capitulation, instead it might be the final one.

Binance added some verification nonsense so I wasn't able to buy more BTC around 40k when it was going up. Since at this point it is clear this is all a conspiracy against me, it's a certainty BTC will go to 200 before 40 ;) I could make a lot of money by tricking my bad luck, maybe put $5 on all roulette numbers but 1, and a friend puts 100k on the last one. Stupid BTC always trolling everyone. Doing it on purpose. Yeah I actually think they do it on purpose, too many coincidences. Right when you want to short you can't, right when you want to buy you can't, it is not allowed to "front run", they do this to get people to FOMO after the price started going up. This whole thing is a blatant ponzi scheme never forget that.

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