BTCUSD Short the Evening Star

Evening Star candle on the daily, looks like there's a high probability we go down to test support.

Opened a small short to target the $6800 range, followed with a bigger buy to close position and long support.

Good R/R on both

Trade active:

*shooting star

Trade active:

price has moved against this position, but it is not invalidated yet. we also now have strong bearish divergence showing on the 4hr as well which increases the likelihood we go down

Comment:

Notice also that the volume is decreasing with the price increase. so we have less volume at 7.6k than we did at 7.4k. This is bearish, as volume should be increasing as price goes up to sustain the momentum.

The final piece is the disparity between longs and shorts. Longs are at 35k btc and shorts are at 20k btc, and the shorts have decreased significantly at this level while longs have built up. So there's not much to squeeze to create momentum to an upward move. If I were an institution looking to create some liquidity I'd run the stops before dumping.

These four factors combined produce enough of a confluence for me to feel satisfied with this short.

price action is never certain, it's only probabilities. but here the edge is enough to justify the trade.

one change though- since my short is small enough I can change my stop to 8030 without violating my risk management, I'm going to do that because I don't want a stop hunt to break me out of the position and I will probably add to it if we go higher.

Trade closed: stop reached:

stop hit at 8030.