Make or break moment

Multiple developments are catching our attention as Bitcoin trades near the lower bound of the upward-sloping channel. First, for the past twelve days, there has been one of the most aggressive increases in the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC; at the same time, the opposite has been happening among the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC, which have been falling (with the decline becoming more rapid in the past three or four days). Second, the RSI has failed to distort a bearish structure on the daily chart, and MACD has failed to break above the midpoint. Simultaneously, the ADX has kept declining, suggesting the trend is relatively weak (whether bullish or bearish). As a result of a relatively ambiguous picture, we think the current situation presents both bullish and bearish setups concentrated around the price action near the channel’s lower bound.

Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD’s RSI. So far, it has not broken above the resistance and distorted the bearish structure.

Illustration 1.02
The illustration above shows the bearish setup, which involves taking a short position with the breakout below the channel's lower bound and placing a stop-loss above it, targeting the recent lows near $38,500 (of course, the setup’s strategy can also be reversed into a bullish trade, with opposite conditions, targeting $48,000). However, it is important to note that this bearish setup is very risky, considering the recent rise in the number of big speculators.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.