Current thoughts. Potential breakout, needs to confirm.

Thoughts are on chart. Ready to change my mind and say that this isn't the crash yet this weekend if we confirm the breakout.

I'm an amateur and you definitely shouldn't take anything I say as financial advice. I would appreciate any feedback.

Comment:

Breakout just failed the bull flag it made perking out of the wedge and fell back into the wedge. Bull flag boundary is really obvious on 1m Bitfinex chart.

Comment:

Just checked BTCUSDLONGS/BTCUSDSHORTS. Up 16% from 1.41 to 1.64 since roughly when the rally today started.

Looks like the bulls bought in, especially near the top on the wedge break. Bears took profits at the bottom and haven't started shorting yet.

The bulls *need* this breakout to work. It's a long way down if the bears smell blood and start shorting.

Comment:

4h candle has 50 min to go and right now looks like an evening star doji with the body inside the wedge.

This is what it means to need confirmation on higher timepoints. We need a rally, and relatively soonish, to confirm any break of the wedge and giant bear flag.

Comment:

5 minutes until the 4h candle completes as a shooting star.

It rallies soon or it will have to do so in the face of a massive bear signal.

Comment:

4h candle finished as an evening star doji. Instead of a 1-candle reversal pattern, that's bearish but just candle 2 of 3 in a 3 candle reversal pattern.

Comment:

Looking a lot more like we're out. 2h candles completing outside of wedge in continuation pattern. Next 4h candle looks like it will complete without giving a reversal signal unless we start selling off in the wedge before it completes.

BTCUSDLONGS and BTCUSDSHORTS are both slowly rising in proportion. Neither side seems inclined to make a strong call at this moment, which I read as us being likely stably on the other side of the wedge now.