Trying to plan out future cycle movement is hard before on-chain data but if you try to model something you get a movement like this.
We will have something like 2012-2015
- Consensus in the the market is that the bull market will peak/start in 2025. I find this to mean 2025 will be a year like mid 2013/2019
- There is zero chance this bullish on chain data on Bitcoin keeps the price under $100,000 by 2025 I can say that with complete data. The first "Big move" has to come late 2023 early 2024
- Consensus states No Spot ETF before 2024 January, this is why I'm putting the odds Spot ETF's get bulk approved by 2023 NOV-DEC
- I suspect we get Spot ETF's approved and a big rally starts around now before it by institutions moving on the PRE data, this would push Bitcoin into a "Supply shock" sending it to $140,000 "Median channel"
- I suspect a sideways move in 2025 where the last retail / weak hands angry at the move believe Bitcoin is overpriced and has to correct thinking a -77% move will come
- Following that 2025 break like an extended 2013-2014 the next upset will be a final ascend to the top of the channel peaking near $2,500,000
Simple price movement terms
1. BTC moves to $140,000 Mar 2024
2. BTC slight correction then bounces to $200,000 Jan 2025 then correcting under the macro median trend
3. BTC Makes a Final ascend doing a 12.5x to $2,500,000
** But a BTC at $2,500,000 would put the marketcap at $48 Trillion?**
This based on 19,500,000 BTC being in the market.
There's less than 2,500,000 BTC on exchanges
More than 10,000,000 BTC in the Hodl / Lost portion
Its clear the circulating bitcoin is flawed today and needs to be adjusted to
"Known Active Supply"
Bitcoin: Total Supply Last Active 10y (50d Moving Average)
2,928,655
Yes that's a 10 year active supply less than 3,000,000
So if I'm guessing how much supply is lost and how much exist that number has to be under 10,000,000 Bitcoin.
For people wondering pushing Bitcoin to "2.5million" would require less than 7 Trillion.
Lets just say Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows 400 Billion per week? that's 5 weeks from launch the price can be hit.
Final pointers I enter and exit based completely on (on-chain) data when that overheats? I don't know but its sure as hell not under $200,000.
Enjoy the bull market.