BITCOIN UPDATE: Is it time to buy? But what if I miss out?
I will keep it short.
There's been plenty of media coverage lately on bitcoin. Simply goes to say that the media folks and insiders(Paul Tudor) got in about a month or so ago, and now they're pushing their agenda saying - oh it's time to buy?
But really, is it time to buy?
Bitcoin certainly had a great V recovery similar to big tech. The catalyst, of course, was the huge expansion of the FEDS balance sheet and their grants(corporate handouts). Confirmed by the FED announcing QE-infinity soon after the idea was posted, as evident from the price action.
![THE MOST DETAILED MULTI-FACTOR CRYPTO MARKET ANALYSIS[2020-2021]](https://static.tradingview.com/static/images/svg/idea-image-placeholder.svg)
The UPSIDE: If bitcoin follows a trend continuation, the right-side chart, the primary target by 2021 should be 30000. But is it worth it if I miss out on potential profit(+300%)? Potentially yes. It depends on your risk profile. Bitcoin breaking up the downtrends, it definitely is a significant bullish confirmation signal. If you're hedging against a monetary collapse, owning gold & silver is a safer investment, but of course with a lower upside.
The DOWNSIDE: Obviously bitcoin can't go to zero. There'll always be people believing in cryptos. But it does have an asymmetric risk profile. No-one knows how far going restrictions on bitcoin will be, once central banks roll-out their digitalized tokens. Perhaps starting 2021-2022. The biggest risk factor to crypto is central bank digitalization and the blockchain integration into the monetary system. There's absolutely no way that bankers will allow crypto to prospect, simply because they can't make money in a free market, ultimately enabled by cryptos. How do you charge interest on something that has such a low inflation rate and a 99% limited supply by 2032? You'd have a limit on the loan creation process in the economy. What happens if the rich buyout all the bitcoin supply with their paper money fortunes? Wealth has always been trickling upwards, especially in the last 20 years. Point being, bitcoin has to coexist with "bad" paper money under Gresham's law.
To wrap it up. FYI don't mind the media and the halving, it's already priced in the nature of bitcoin. The halving is practically irrelevant. The volume in recent weeks has been quite remarkable. Similarly to bigtech, bitcoin has been unphased by the number of unemployment claims. Paychecks will be on a perpetual basis. Without them, we will have an immediate systematic collapse. Hence, the money supply growth, won't subside. This is what happens when you merge the fiscal(the US treasury) and the monetary(the FED) sides. Currently resembling a system close to China's quasi-socialist state. And the irony... Bullish until central banks rollout their digitalized tockens. The uselessness of monetary policy makes bitcoin legitimate.
Hope my idea was useful. I've been off lately, but as soon as I'm done with school, I will get back to intensely following and analyzing markets again.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket
________________________________________________________________________________________
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated!
Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. Inquiries, questions, and more analysis contact me through any of my social media channels.
There's been plenty of media coverage lately on bitcoin. Simply goes to say that the media folks and insiders(Paul Tudor) got in about a month or so ago, and now they're pushing their agenda saying - oh it's time to buy?
But really, is it time to buy?
Bitcoin certainly had a great V recovery similar to big tech. The catalyst, of course, was the huge expansion of the FEDS balance sheet and their grants(corporate handouts). Confirmed by the FED announcing QE-infinity soon after the idea was posted, as evident from the price action.
![THE MOST DETAILED MULTI-FACTOR CRYPTO MARKET ANALYSIS[2020-2021]](https://s3.tradingview.com/k/kMurAxkK_big.png)
The UPSIDE: If bitcoin follows a trend continuation, the right-side chart, the primary target by 2021 should be 30000. But is it worth it if I miss out on potential profit(+300%)? Potentially yes. It depends on your risk profile. Bitcoin breaking up the downtrends, it definitely is a significant bullish confirmation signal. If you're hedging against a monetary collapse, owning gold & silver is a safer investment, but of course with a lower upside.
The DOWNSIDE: Obviously bitcoin can't go to zero. There'll always be people believing in cryptos. But it does have an asymmetric risk profile. No-one knows how far going restrictions on bitcoin will be, once central banks roll-out their digitalized tokens. Perhaps starting 2021-2022. The biggest risk factor to crypto is central bank digitalization and the blockchain integration into the monetary system. There's absolutely no way that bankers will allow crypto to prospect, simply because they can't make money in a free market, ultimately enabled by cryptos. How do you charge interest on something that has such a low inflation rate and a 99% limited supply by 2032? You'd have a limit on the loan creation process in the economy. What happens if the rich buyout all the bitcoin supply with their paper money fortunes? Wealth has always been trickling upwards, especially in the last 20 years. Point being, bitcoin has to coexist with "bad" paper money under Gresham's law.
To wrap it up. FYI don't mind the media and the halving, it's already priced in the nature of bitcoin. The halving is practically irrelevant. The volume in recent weeks has been quite remarkable. Similarly to bigtech, bitcoin has been unphased by the number of unemployment claims. Paychecks will be on a perpetual basis. Without them, we will have an immediate systematic collapse. Hence, the money supply growth, won't subside. This is what happens when you merge the fiscal(the US treasury) and the monetary(the FED) sides. Currently resembling a system close to China's quasi-socialist state. And the irony... Bullish until central banks rollout their digitalized tockens. The uselessness of monetary policy makes bitcoin legitimate.
Hope my idea was useful. I've been off lately, but as soon as I'm done with school, I will get back to intensely following and analyzing markets again.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket
________________________________________________________________________________________
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated!
Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. Inquiries, questions, and more analysis contact me through any of my social media channels.
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