cryptosach

BTC Beginners Evaluation - Historical Market Behaviour

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Looking into the trend behaviours for large sized duration (1 year) we can see that in January 2013 there was some interest in the bitcoin market for the first time with early-early adopters showing a bull run with the low volumes that were present.

The first bull run rose +1727% over 89 days. Due to the non-linear behaviour, this cannot be averaged into per day terms. Looking at the relative length to height ratio (1727% / 89d = 20 for this one bull run). We will take this as a 'typical' long-term bull run in cryptocurrency terms due to the relatively long tail where the run started.
This was then followed by a fall ( bearish ) of -68% over 7d = 10.


The second bull run we saw rose +1412% over 152d = 9 (half of 20 we previously experienced with the first bull run). This may be contributed to the larger volumes of trades having a larger effect on the behaviour of how high the price rose. However the price rose fairly similar (+1727% & +1412%) but over a much shorter duration.
This was then followed by a fall of -51% over 14d = 4 (again half of 10 we previously experienced with first fall).

Summary ratios
Term Bull Bear
long 20 10
short 9 4

Note: Percentages (%) are a good common base unit to look at as this is normalised to suit any volume at any price. These ratios are a first glance at what market behaviours are typically like. These indicators may be adjusted to upper and lower bound of short and long term behaviours depending on risk tolerance.

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