It looks like there are some very similar patterns still playing out I have color coated similarities I see. Comparing the two bubbles:
2014
-ATH at the end of November (2013)
-Break of "triangle" mid september
-New low in January (2015)
2018
-ATH in December (2017)
-Break of "triangle" mid November
-New low February - March
I don't know if the support triangle will turn out similar but i tried to draw likely candidates. The "Possibility 1 Triangle" seems to match the bollinger band and RSI movements better so I am hopeful we find support here. if we dip another 45% below our breakout candle, it will put us down towards the $1300 support level (Possibility 2 triangle). In short, I don't think we are out of the woods yet, but were looking for a bottom. If the previous bubble is a guide, we should find our new lows by the end of the Q1 2019.
I think now is a good time to start averaging back in or down if you plan to stick around for the next bubble (if there is one). Considering Bitcoin is mathematically driven, you could make the argument that humans are the only variable and over time tend to react the same way as they always do.
Comment or like if you find this interesting or useful. Not investment advice, but good luck out there.
2014
-ATH at the end of November (2013)
-Break of "triangle" mid september
-New low in January (2015)
2018
-ATH in December (2017)
-Break of "triangle" mid November
-New low February - March
I don't know if the support triangle will turn out similar but i tried to draw likely candidates. The "Possibility 1 Triangle" seems to match the bollinger band and RSI movements better so I am hopeful we find support here. if we dip another 45% below our breakout candle, it will put us down towards the $1300 support level (Possibility 2 triangle). In short, I don't think we are out of the woods yet, but were looking for a bottom. If the previous bubble is a guide, we should find our new lows by the end of the Q1 2019.
I think now is a good time to start averaging back in or down if you plan to stick around for the next bubble (if there is one). Considering Bitcoin is mathematically driven, you could make the argument that humans are the only variable and over time tend to react the same way as they always do.
Comment or like if you find this interesting or useful. Not investment advice, but good luck out there.
Comment:
Down $1000 since posting, and right near that first resistance line. Still hasn't broken, but doesn't look like there are a lot of buyers out there at these levels based on volumes. Probably a coin toss whether we go lower, but my instincts say we'll break through.
Comment:
We didnt break through and the support triangle appears to be the one at $3000 rather than the lower one at $1200. Couple of similar things lining up for bitcoins current levels:
1. Broke the upper bollinger band for the first time since the top. This happened during the consolidation phase in 2015 as well.
2. The price action that broke through the upper bollinger band was rejected off the 200d EMA in 2015 as well during last week's run.
Obviously no way to ensure bitcoin will follow the same pattern, but there does seem to be many parallels.
1. Broke the upper bollinger band for the first time since the top. This happened during the consolidation phase in 2015 as well.
2. The price action that broke through the upper bollinger band was rejected off the 200d EMA in 2015 as well during last week's run.
Obviously no way to ensure bitcoin will follow the same pattern, but there does seem to be many parallels.
