Bitcoin - Why everyone is probably wrong

You may have noticed published ideas on tradingview.com are now calling for price action to take one direction and that direction is down. Don’t take my word for it, click on BTCUSD pair to the bottom right of this screen and then ‘ideas’ then ‘Recent’. A significant number of analysts are “short” at this time.

The number of short ideas should not be surprising, there is tens of millions of dollars in short interest around the 74-75k area waiting to be liquidated.

Two falling wedge patterns are shown on the above 1-day chart. All too easily these patterns produce false breakouts. How do you verify? Verification is made in a similar way to the recently published “How to void or validate a head and shoulders pattern” (idea linked below). We achieve validation by observing the movements of the oscillators.

1) A cross up of 20 indicates momentum is returning to the market. Look left.

2) Momentum oscillators cycle from above 80 to below 20 the majority of the time between 20 to 30 days. Look left and confirm, don’t take my word for it! At this time 26 days have passed since Stochastic RSI was above 80.

3) Considering points (1) and (2) the falling wedge now has a high probability of confirming the continued uptrend.

4) The wedge target area may be forecast by measuring the flagpole height (black circles). You can observe how accurate the first wedge target was forecast using this process. The forecast for the 2nd wedge is shown, towards the 115k area.

5) The 115k target area was first forecast from the “Is Bitcoin about to rally to 110-120k” idea (linked below) in July 2022 as price action was around $18k using the same method described above.

6) When the target is reached the bull market is over. There will be calls from all quarters informing us how price action is now going to $250k and beyond. Ignore it. The next macro long opportunity will be in 2026.

Is it possible price action continues correcting from the new all time high? Sure.
Is it probable? No

Ww



How to void or validate a head and shoulders pattern

Is Bitcoin about to rally to 110-120k

Trade active:

With the month of March at a close an important development on the chart is realised. Which is?

Past resistance confirms support on past resistance with a monthly candle close on the previous market top.

If you're a bear, you need to see price action drop below 65K tonight to print the Gravestone DOJI / Spinning top candle everyone was talking about only 2 weeks ago.

If you're a market bull, stay long, the next move over the coming 60 to 90 days is likely to be energetic. Plan for it.

monthly

Comment:

Long from 61k, the wedge support.

Comment:

Yes, for the time being this trade remains active. There's been a few messages asking.

$47 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin was sold this afternoon, hard to comprehend.

Trade active:

On April 3rd it was written "Long from 61k, the wedge support"

Did you get it?!

It is possible price action may return there over the coming week, however, it is clear a lot of support exists at this level with the speed at which it was bought up.

Comment:

As before,
A long from $61k is excellent.
A long from $58k is amazing.