“History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes” - Mark Twain
When people ask what I think
BTCUSD
will do next, I point to the last halving cycle bull run. Here's what I notice:
So what does this mean for 2021?
When people ask what I think
BTCUSD
will do next, I point to the last halving cycle bull run. Here's what I notice: - It took ~6 months from the time of the halving to the time it bounced off the previous ATH
- The first bounce off the 2013 ATH happened on Jan 5th 2017. Rebalancing gains during the first week of the year is common for deferring capital gains tax payments to the following year.
- There were 2 major bounces off the previous ATH of ~30% before smashing into new territory
- There were 3 major dips of ~30% after smashing the previous ATH
- The first and last booms were ~250% and the middle booms were ~150%
- It took an entire year for this to play out
- Not on the chart but I remember it well, there was lots of "bitcoin is dead" and "China bans bitcoin" FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt)
So what does this mean for 2021?
- Just like last time, we just bounced off the 2017 ATH ~6 months after the halving
- Prepare for a couple attempts to break the 2017 ATH before smashing through (we're currently witnessing the first)
- Prepare for a possible ~30% drop the first week of January 2021 (~$14k)
- Prepare for a rollercoaster year from today through Q4 2021 $200k-$300k BTC (aligns nicely with PlanB's Cross Asset Stock To Flow Model)
- Prepare for lots of FUD