Flow_Capital

Why predictions about BTC are wrong!

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
There are 100s of people screaming through the rooftops about BTC going to the floor and others backing it saying it will move higher in the coming weeks.

The honest truth is most of these people do not know what they are talking about. The sentiment in the market is very split with short term movements almost impossible to predict (next 3 months).

If we take a look at the 4h it is very sideways and messy, the opposite of what I like to trade. I am not entering BTC for trades.

So, it poses the question, what will BTC do in the medium-long term? If we look at the weekly and monthly timeframes we are still looking positive and are not showing the same weakness as lower timeframes. If we combine this with some on chain data, from glassnode, we can see that long term holders are not selling into this dip and it is actually people who have bought in the past year that are moving their coins. This suggest that smart money is still confident in the market and think we have another big pump on the way.

So I would give BTC about a 70% chance to come back from this dip and reach ATMs rather than going significantly lower (breaking 30k). I have a buy set at 32.5k as another move lower would pose a very interesting buy opportunity as people are looking at the lower timeframes and freaking out - buy into fear.

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