Bitcoin Big Picture - Trends, Channels, Extensions Oh My!
2017 run-up over 34 weeks followed by decline in channel over 51 weeks.
2019 run-up over 29 weeks followed by decline in channel over 57 weeks.
Bigger patern 2017 run-up along with decline in descending channel over 137 weeks (which includes bottom to top of channel upward move formed by the 2019 run-up) then breakout above descending channel in July 2020. Leads to HUGE run-up in 2020 and 2021 up to top of long term multi-year ascending trend channel. Top of this run-up is also formed by 1.618 extension of initial 2020 impulse move upward followed by bounce off of 0.618 retracement of this move.
Huge decline off of bounce of top of multi-year upward trend channel with retracement down to support around $30k. This support area is "supported" by a number of ideas including mid-trend line in multi-year upward trend channel, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement on 2020/2021 upward move, and 2.618 upward extension of 2019 run-up move. Should this support area hold price may move upward within multi-year trend channel and possibly breakout of possible descending channel as part of bull-flag formed by 2020/2021 impulse move. In this case price may hit just under $100k on 1.618 extension of 2020/2021 impulse move.
Or, if 50+ week decline from recent 2020/2021 impulse move occurs that would map to similarly extended declindes from 2017 and 2019 upward impulse moves and price may go down to 20k before bounding upward again in any lasting and significant manner. If price breaks below the 30k support area it could descend to the late 2017 highs around 20k before bouncing upward again. Although, a lot of negative sentiment, government intervention or institutional deparature from the crypto space would have to occur to fuel such a move.
With the move upward to a newly stacked upper multi-year trend channel price may just remain in this upward zone until it breaks higher.
If all of this sounds like gobbledy gook then here's some sensible words of caution. Beware of unicorns flying around on your charts! They may appear enticing and harmless but they are difficult to ride! :)
2019 run-up over 29 weeks followed by decline in channel over 57 weeks.
Bigger patern 2017 run-up along with decline in descending channel over 137 weeks (which includes bottom to top of channel upward move formed by the 2019 run-up) then breakout above descending channel in July 2020. Leads to HUGE run-up in 2020 and 2021 up to top of long term multi-year ascending trend channel. Top of this run-up is also formed by 1.618 extension of initial 2020 impulse move upward followed by bounce off of 0.618 retracement of this move.
Huge decline off of bounce of top of multi-year upward trend channel with retracement down to support around $30k. This support area is "supported" by a number of ideas including mid-trend line in multi-year upward trend channel, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement on 2020/2021 upward move, and 2.618 upward extension of 2019 run-up move. Should this support area hold price may move upward within multi-year trend channel and possibly breakout of possible descending channel as part of bull-flag formed by 2020/2021 impulse move. In this case price may hit just under $100k on 1.618 extension of 2020/2021 impulse move.
Or, if 50+ week decline from recent 2020/2021 impulse move occurs that would map to similarly extended declindes from 2017 and 2019 upward impulse moves and price may go down to 20k before bounding upward again in any lasting and significant manner. If price breaks below the 30k support area it could descend to the late 2017 highs around 20k before bouncing upward again. Although, a lot of negative sentiment, government intervention or institutional deparature from the crypto space would have to occur to fuel such a move.
With the move upward to a newly stacked upper multi-year trend channel price may just remain in this upward zone until it breaks higher.
If all of this sounds like gobbledy gook then here's some sensible words of caution. Beware of unicorns flying around on your charts! They may appear enticing and harmless but they are difficult to ride! :)
