! Not financial advice - This is my trading diary! It helps me think about my ideas. Let us remember that trading isn't about guessing the future but preparing a plan, acting accordingly, and giving appropriate responses.
Hello Traders,
No clear direction at the moment; Bitcoin is still range-bound. Which I believe is good for long-term growth.
There is strong resistance on the 200-Daily EMA + January ATH to watch if it attempts a breakout. If BTC passes beyond it, a low-liquidity area might push the price straight towards 48-50k. And there, I would be cautious: in this Zone, we have confluences that might indicate a Bull Trap can be attempted (FIBS + Death crosses + Previous supports that are now acting as resistance).
How to know if it is a Bull Trap or not? Look at the volume signature, how many Market Buy orders are being opened, and if the price is not moving, it is most likely being absorbed by big shorts. Another way is to spot divergences, on OBV or RSI, for example. Then you would be a clear signal to close all positions or go along with shorts because we might be heading much lower. IF BTC passes the test, then we are aiming at the continuation of this bull run.
One bullish factor to mention is that BTC is holding on to the SpeedFan support on the Daily, and on the lower time frames, it is forming Higher Lows, which I refer to as "Grinding" resistance (the box). I was expecting a stronger rejection, but BTC is not refusing to back off. But for me, the true bullish scenario is a multi-week consolidation within this Zone. If we move too high, too fast again, we might fall into the Bull Trap.
I believe that the price is not ready to break out yet and that the lows of this range should be re-tested a few more times. If it holds strong over time, then we know the bottom is in; otherwise, let's leave the Market to search for balance at lower prices.
Please let me know if you agree or disagree, and how your ideas can be complementary or pointing at something I haven't seen yet.
Hello Traders,
No clear direction at the moment; Bitcoin is still range-bound. Which I believe is good for long-term growth.
There is strong resistance on the 200-Daily EMA + January ATH to watch if it attempts a breakout. If BTC passes beyond it, a low-liquidity area might push the price straight towards 48-50k. And there, I would be cautious: in this Zone, we have confluences that might indicate a Bull Trap can be attempted (FIBS + Death crosses + Previous supports that are now acting as resistance).
How to know if it is a Bull Trap or not? Look at the volume signature, how many Market Buy orders are being opened, and if the price is not moving, it is most likely being absorbed by big shorts. Another way is to spot divergences, on OBV or RSI, for example. Then you would be a clear signal to close all positions or go along with shorts because we might be heading much lower. IF BTC passes the test, then we are aiming at the continuation of this bull run.
One bullish factor to mention is that BTC is holding on to the SpeedFan support on the Daily, and on the lower time frames, it is forming Higher Lows, which I refer to as "Grinding" resistance (the box). I was expecting a stronger rejection, but BTC is not refusing to back off. But for me, the true bullish scenario is a multi-week consolidation within this Zone. If we move too high, too fast again, we might fall into the Bull Trap.
I believe that the price is not ready to break out yet and that the lows of this range should be re-tested a few more times. If it holds strong over time, then we know the bottom is in; otherwise, let's leave the Market to search for balance at lower prices.
Please let me know if you agree or disagree, and how your ideas can be complementary or pointing at something I haven't seen yet.