Hurst Cycle analysis is showing the end of a 500 day cycle, 250 day cycle, and 60 day cycle coinciding together between July 3rd and July 11th. All of the cycles are together pulling the price downwards; however, this will be one last grande finale flame out of the sellers, fittingly sometime in the vicinity of the 4th of July. BTC has already put waves 1 and 2 of the final 5 wave downward impulse of the bear market, ending a large WXY pattern.
I am seeing the highest probability that wave 3 bounces off of the bottom support line of the column that BTC has stayed within during wave C of Y in May and June of this year. It would make sense for this to happen near June 28th because that would put wave 3 in a 1:1 ratio with wave 1. However, that would mean that wave 3 is truncated. "When Wave 3 is less than 1.62, the 5th Wave overextends itself. From research, the ratio of Wave 5 will be based on the entire length from the beginning of Wave 1 to the top of Wave 3."
(astrocycle.net/PDF/WaveRatios.pdf). This of course is not absolute, but if wave 3 is 1:1 with wave 1 it increases the probability of an extended 5th wave.
I have marked the possible targets of an extended 5th wave. Most commonly the extended 5th wave would be .618, 1, or 1.618 waves 1-3. This corresponds to 4690, 4083, and 3100. That last value of 3100 is within a large cluster of support and would be a fitting end to the bear market.
Don't panic sell with the rest of the world when it nose dives. When it hits bottom, go long! The next 500 day cycle is going to be huge!
I am seeing the highest probability that wave 3 bounces off of the bottom support line of the column that BTC has stayed within during wave C of Y in May and June of this year. It would make sense for this to happen near June 28th because that would put wave 3 in a 1:1 ratio with wave 1. However, that would mean that wave 3 is truncated. "When Wave 3 is less than 1.62, the 5th Wave overextends itself. From research, the ratio of Wave 5 will be based on the entire length from the beginning of Wave 1 to the top of Wave 3."
(astrocycle.net/PDF/WaveRatios.pdf). This of course is not absolute, but if wave 3 is 1:1 with wave 1 it increases the probability of an extended 5th wave.
I have marked the possible targets of an extended 5th wave. Most commonly the extended 5th wave would be .618, 1, or 1.618 waves 1-3. This corresponds to 4690, 4083, and 3100. That last value of 3100 is within a large cluster of support and would be a fitting end to the bear market.
Don't panic sell with the rest of the world when it nose dives. When it hits bottom, go long! The next 500 day cycle is going to be huge!
Comment:
Here is what I am currently thinking. This chart does not show an extended 5th wave, but I like how it keeps the impulse contained within the channel. If the 5th wave extends itself BTC would be in the range of 3800 - 4550 (or in extreme case as low at 2835).
Comment:
I want to show a close up of the subminette waves I have marked up in yellow. If this count is correct then it says a lot about the course moving forward. First, I would like to note that wave III is 1.618 of wave I, and wave IV is .386 retrace of wave III. The only thing I don't like is that wave IV looks 3 wave'ish, but its so small to see the subwaves of it there could be 5 in there. I would also like to point out that the spike upwards in wave III goes upwards before it goes downwards. You can see this on the 5 minute chart but not on the 30 minute chart. If you read it as down then up mistakenly on the 30 minute chart, you could argue more easily that the wave looks corrective 3 wave'ish.
If the count is correct that it has 5 waves, then it proves that wave 2 on the chart is marked correct. The downward wave after what is marked 2 could therefore not be a B wave. If the yellow count is incorrect and its got 3 waves then you could say it is B and BTC is working on C wave. The C wave could then form an upward wedge up near 6550 touching the top of the channel. Also, if there are in fact only 3 waves in there an not 5 then you could have the possibility that the wave marked as 1 could be the bottom and what is marked as wave 2 could be the start of a bull trend impulse. (which would make the bottom marked as 1 actually be the end of Y that extends all of May and June). Unless something changes to make this current leg look 3 wave'ish, the general direction I have marked in my previous update seems correct.
If the count is correct that it has 5 waves, then it proves that wave 2 on the chart is marked correct. The downward wave after what is marked 2 could therefore not be a B wave. If the yellow count is incorrect and its got 3 waves then you could say it is B and BTC is working on C wave. The C wave could then form an upward wedge up near 6550 touching the top of the channel. Also, if there are in fact only 3 waves in there an not 5 then you could have the possibility that the wave marked as 1 could be the bottom and what is marked as wave 2 could be the start of a bull trend impulse. (which would make the bottom marked as 1 actually be the end of Y that extends all of May and June). Unless something changes to make this current leg look 3 wave'ish, the general direction I have marked in my previous update seems correct.
Comment:
sorry correction, "The only thing I don't like is that wave V looks 3 wave'ish"