The past few days have all but confirmed the bearish trend change. We broke out of the ascending channel, reflected off of a genesis log fib we NEEDED to take, and in a very short time we've lost another logarithmic regressed fib line. We are currently on our way to the next one which lies at around 35.5k. That line acted as a strong area of support in a number of situations historically for bitcoin. In the previous cycles, it has acted as a bottom during the mid cycle correction in the bull run part of the halving phase. Losing that line would be fairly historic for btc and would likley spell a very bad time for us. If we bounce back up off of that line, we can consider this whole down period as consolidation and we will likley see 100k+ by spring of 2022.
Currently, We are in the process of battling with a line of support that, in my opinion will hold for now, but not on the next test on the 1hr, as it has already been tested several times and deeply pierced once. 35.5k won't be far after that line is broken. Around there, give or take a K, will be the last chance for btc to continue bullish. Even if it does bounce it will be a dead cat bounce unless we can take 53k. I could see a bullish argument for an eliot wave 5 incoming, but who says that wave 5 can't just be a dead cat lol
Please note: WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE 1w 50 SMA (38.5k). Historically going decisively below that line means we will go down to the 200sma (15k). Going that low would be the first time that we broke lower than a previous halving cycle ATH (~20k).
The outlook for btc isn't great. It's either the best time to buy or the worst. Always hard to say for sure till time passes a bit more, but I know what side I'm on. I plan to start dcaing my way back in once we hit 35k and as we go lower. Shorting for now tho.
Currently, We are in the process of battling with a line of support that, in my opinion will hold for now, but not on the next test on the 1hr, as it has already been tested several times and deeply pierced once. 35.5k won't be far after that line is broken. Around there, give or take a K, will be the last chance for btc to continue bullish. Even if it does bounce it will be a dead cat bounce unless we can take 53k. I could see a bullish argument for an eliot wave 5 incoming, but who says that wave 5 can't just be a dead cat lol
Please note: WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE 1w 50 SMA (38.5k). Historically going decisively below that line means we will go down to the 200sma (15k). Going that low would be the first time that we broke lower than a previous halving cycle ATH (~20k).
The outlook for btc isn't great. It's either the best time to buy or the worst. Always hard to say for sure till time passes a bit more, but I know what side I'm on. I plan to start dcaing my way back in once we hit 35k and as we go lower. Shorting for now tho.