Felix000
Long

#Bitcoin going cautiously long, Consensus 2018, saw the low Y/N?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
During, Consensus 2018, I'd say bulls won on points (market held up well).
Comment: Global markets could impact but there are loads of places to put stops in.
Comment: Better way of putting it "Bitcoin, Consensus 2018, bulls won on points (time spent above weekend low). Bitcoin now set to go higher, but not while rattled by current global markets and events.
Comment: Regarding my comment above "Bitcoin now set to go higher, but not while rattled by current global markets", another idea is that my analysis of an 8 to 12 day bear market from May 5 did not complete (hit the buy zone) because of the upbeat mood of, Consensus 2018, and is now in the midst of completing. My research only covered signal performance from Dec 2017 therefore don't know if move can extend beyond 12 days? Will be watching if price drops to buy zone and then also watching the weekly charts to see whether Bitcoin can maintains it's previous performance of no consecutive weekly fractal highs and lows.
Comment: I'm thinking of posting an edited version of all my posts regarding the above signal like say a diary. There are loads of really cool posts being published out there using orthodox methods, as well as, showing off "black box" signal generators. My work and research is my own using tools provided by Trading View in un-orthodox ways and of course NOT TO BE RELIED UPON AS ADVICE ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY.
Comment: I'm working on a new study (a fresh new chart) not ready to post yet all I can think of at the moment is that it would be good for bulls to seize an opportunity today May 19th and post a wick above $,8631.
Comment: As referred to above " I'm thinking of posting an edited version of all my posts regarding the above signal like say a diary" well here it is below in four parts as won't all fit in one box update:

PART ONE

THE FOLLOWING IS WHAT I POSTED APRIL 30: (LONG)

April30 #Bitcoin key to next big move here's why.

--------> April30 Turquoise (light blue) shaded areas in my chart are formed whenever you get a consecutive day with either green or red vertical bars in my MACD . A green vertical is formed when you get a green candlestick but MACD bar drops. A red vertical is formed when you get a red candlestick and MACD bar rises. This has only happened five times this year. Each time except one occasion had you gone with the break out you win. On the occasion it didn't happen the market closed up one day out of the range and then reversed the next day to close down below the previous day's open and continued down in that direction. Good idea or not?
Comment: As referred to above " I'm thinking of posting an edited version of all my posts regarding the above signal like say a diary" well here it is below in four parts as won't all fit in one box update:

PART TWO

THE FOLLOWING IS WHAT I POSTED MAY 12 (SHORT)

May12 #Bitcoin next buy zone between $7,271.3 and $6,745.1

--------> May12 Bitcoin Buy zone between $7,271.3 and $6,745.1 (8 to 12 day Bear market from May5........)

THE FOLOWING IS THE RESEARCH ON STATS JUST CONCLUDED CHECK THEM OUT FOR YOURSELVES - Guess work involved just an idea and not to be taken as advice etc.... (standard disclaimers)

(25/1 26/1 Box) 28/1 - 6/2 (10 days) $12,190 - $6000 = $6,190 ($6,190/$12,190 *100 = 50.8% Box volatility $1,458/$12,190 *100 = 11.96%)
(10/2 11/2 Box) 11/2 - 20/2 (10 days) $11,788 - $7,851 = $3,937 ($3,937/$11,788 *100 = 33.4% Box volatility $1,223.9/$11,788 *100 = 10.38%)
(21/3 22/3 Box) 21/3 - 1/4 (12 days) $9,177.5 - $6,425.1 = $2,752.4 ($2,752.4/$9,177.5 *100 = 30% Box volatility $727.5/$9,177.5 *100 = 7.93%)
(5/4 6/6 Box) 6/4 - 15/4 (10 days) $8,458 - $6,500 = $1,958 ($1,958/$8,458 *100 = 23.2% Box volatility $437.8/$8,458 *100 = 5.18%)
(18/4 19/4 Box) 18/4 - 25/4 (8 days) $9,767.4 - $7,870.5 = $1,896.9 ($1,896.9/$9,767.4 *100 = 19.4% Box volatility $426.9/$9,767.4 *100 = 4.37%)
(28/4 29/4 Box) 5/5 - ? (7th day and counting) High $9,990 - Low $*,*** ? (.................................................Box volatility $815.1/$9,990 *100 = 8.16%)

I'm thinking Box volatility is key to next buy zone

(10/2 11/2 Box) 11/2 - 20/2 (10 days) $11,788 - $7,851 = $3,937 ($3,937/$11,788 *100 = 33.4% Box volatility $1,223.9/$11,788 *100 = 10.38%)
(21/3 22/3 Box) 21/3 - 1/4 (12 days) $9,177.5 - $6,425.1 = $2,752.4 ($2,752.4/$9,177.5 *100 = 30% Box volatility $727.5/$9,177.5 *100 = 7.93%)

Current (28/4 29/4 Box) - Box volatility $815.1/$9,990 *100 = 8.16%.

I look at a drop from $9,990 of between $2,752.4 and $3,937 and then look for best support levels (I decided $6,053 was way too low and picked $6,745 higher up instead). You could try doing it by percentage drop i.e. 33.4% or 30%.

--------> May12 I would switch to long on retrace through $9,157.55 that's 50% of H/L of my turquoise (light blue) rectangle on the chart. Then again now the market is down by so much I'd probably currently switch to long if price turned up or closed above May12 open.
--------> May12 Just repeating a copy of my idea posted on somebody else's posting:
--------> May12 The way I see it is that Bitcoin's technical expansion from the Aug 2016 low to Dec 2017 high did not form any consecutive weekly fractal highs or lows. This year Bitcoin is off to a good start again from Feb 2018 low and probably in the midst of a soon to be confirmed weekly fractal high followed by a weekly fractal low. I believe we are in an 8 to 12 day bear market which began May 5 and which will end over the next 4 days - Sun, Mon, Tue, or Wed max. Then hopefully away we go smash through $9,990 create the next weekly fractal high further up. Of course a lot can happen in the meantime to wreck my idea. Next week's Consensus event may help. NOT TO BE TAKEN AS ADVICE (ALL USUAL DISCLAIMERS APPLY)
--------> May13 Been thinking since morning whether the points I would go long should be lowered a bit, even been drawing some new downward trend lines but then I'm thinking what news on Mon, Tue, or Wed next week could keep the price down? Will sit on the side line for now. If price touched a Bollinger band set at (20, Close, 3) on 2hr chart that could interest me outside of what's already on my Day chart.
--------> May13 Tough decision 2 hour chart top Bollinger was $8,762.333 and price made it to $8,760 that's $2.333 short.
--------> May13 Is that a bear flag 2hr chart Top from 8631.7 to 8760 and Bottom from 8204.4 to 8218.2 ? Price looking like its going to break lower.
Comment: As referred to above " I'm thinking of posting an edited version of all my posts regarding the above signal like say a diary" well here it is below in four parts as won't all fit in one box update:

PART TWO (Continued)

--------> May14 Largest Asian four hour drop since last Monday May 7th.
--------> May14 Incoming bunker buster flag just broke,
--------> May14 Waiting for follow through. Could develop instead into a rising channel.
--------> May14 If price breaks through supports, and looking at a bear flag then price could be heading below $7,600.
--------> May14 Market in lower timeframes appears to be caught in an upward channel. Has touched several points along the upward path so far which included that last high. If it breaks higher than that upward path well...... .
Comment: As referred to above " I'm thinking of posting an edited version of all my posts regarding the above signal like say a diary" well here it is below in four parts as won't all fit in one box update:

PART THREE

THE FOLLOWING IS WHAT I POSTED MAY 14 (LONG)

May14 #Bitcoin $10,956 plus by end Wed May 16 Y/N?

--------> May14 Previously market was looking at a drop from $9,990 of between $2,752.4 and $3,937. Looks like the 8 to 12 day bear market ended on the 8th day and that the drop won't be as great as the rise back up through the last daily fractal high by the 12th day. So I'm now thinking the reverse from $8,204.4 that would be $10,956 plus by end Wednesday ($8,204.4 + $2,752.4 = $10,956). Given market $8,825 high already today it's not impossible especially as were in Consensus 2018 week, and WOW what good news is coming out from there.

At the moment price appears to be caught in an upward channel. I expect price to break upward from that rather than down to new lows.

How I worked out these figures see my previous post "#Bitcoin next buy zone between $7,271.3 and $6,745.1"

Of course a lot can happen in the meantime to wreck my idea, but all looks clear for the time being. REMEMBER NOT TO BE TAKEN AS ADVICE (ALL USUAL DISCLAIMERS APPLY)

--------> May15 My call long may have been wrong in this 8 to 12 day analysis of previous market action. MACD bars are in the minus area, and price has not broken higher though important Fib and trend lines as expected. Could head down for a new low, and global financial markets could also impact today.
--------> May15 Had market already hit $9,000 that would have been great.
--------> May15 I note a divergence in yesterdays bar. By that I mean whenever closing price and MACD bars close in different directions (marked with either green or red verticals in my MACD chart - have added a green to Mon. May14). If today market closes above or below yesterdays high or low then todays open $8,670.8 i.e. the day after open can be a useful stop loss trigger if the days following reverse and close above or beneath it. This stop loss idea is still a work in progress, but one of the ideas I'm keeping in mind while Bitcoin appears stuck in a holding position up from lows.
--------> May15 As admitted to earlier my go long plan B may have been wrong in this 8-12 day analysis of previous market action. MACD bars in minus, and not broken higher though important Fib and trend lines as expected. Could head for new low. Global markets could impact. Had market already hit $9,000 then better.

It's hard not to be thinking plan A the short right now aided by Global markets.

--------> May15 One more day to go and the market move is still a minimum $992.4 shorter than the stats predicted. Price still appears to be caught in an upward channel but now at the lower end.
--------> May15 Today the percentage of Bitcoin traders net-long is now its highest since May 04 when Bitcoin traded near 9653.15 well one more day to go.
--------> May16 Upward channel looks broken by bears now or under pressure.
--------> May16 Just touched the lower Bollinger (set at 20, close,3) on 2hr chart very often a directional signal
--------> May16 Today the percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since May 05 when Bitcoin traded near 9782.48.
--------> May16 My 8 to 12 day bear/bull analysis (tweets May 11 & 14) of previous market action ends today Wed May 16. The analysis may not have delivered expected volatility but when this bear ends, next bull run may need repeat like two consecutive down fractals made between Mar 23 & Apr 1 which were followed by Apr 3 retrace and Apr 6 confirmed support.
Comment: As referred to above " I'm thinking of posting an edited version of all my posts regarding the above signal like say a diary" well here it is below in four parts as won't all fit in one box update:

PART FOUR

THE FOLLOWING IS WHAT I POSTED MAY 17 (LONG)

May17 #Bitcoin going cautiously long, Consensus 2018, saw the low Y/N?

--------> May17 During, Consensus 2018, I'd say bulls won on points (market held up well).
--------> May17 Global markets could impact but there are loads of places to put stops in.
--------> May17 Better way of putting it "Bitcoin, Consensus 2018, bulls won on points (time spent above weekend low). Bitcoin now set to go higher, but not while rattled by current global markets and events.
--------> May18 Regarding my comment above "Bitcoin now set to go higher, but not while rattled by current global markets", another idea is that my analysis of an 8 to 12 day bear market from May 5 did not complete (hit the buy zone) because of the upbeat mood of, Consensus 2018, and is now in the midst of completing. My research only covered signal performance from Dec 2017 therefore don't know if move can extend beyond 12 days? Will be watching if price drops to buy zone and then also watching the weekly charts to see whether Bitcoin can maintains it's previous performance of no consecutive weekly fractal highs and lows.

19th May see my latest post "#Bitcoin plus $8,631 wick today 19th May please"

Can't tell the market what to do, or, can you ?
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