Hello,
Thought it would be worthwhile doing a BTC post and charting it's progression to the fabled 100K mark (and beyond) , covering some key takeaways from the zoomed out view of it's 14 year history.
1. The Technology Adoption Curve:
At the heart of understanding many modern innovations lies the 'Technology Adoption Curve' or S-curve. For example:
Radios: Took decades before they became a household item.
Televisions: Witnessed rapid adoption in the latter half of the 20th century.
Personal Computers: From a luxury to a necessity within a generation.
The Internet: Evolved from an academic tool to an indispensable global network in just years.
Each of these technologies followed an S-curve pattern: slow initial adoption, explosive middle-phase growth, and then saturation as nearly everyone who was going to use the technology began doing so. When looking at the 14 year history of Bitcoin it's hard to ignore the current parallels with this pattern, an explosive start followed by, while still impressive, tapering returns.
2. Exponential Growth Curves:
Distinct from the S-curve is the exponential growth curve, representing constant growth over time. This differs from the S-curve, which indicates a saturation point. Instead, an exponential curve suggests persistent, compound growth – the kind we often see in the stock market over extended periods due to factors like economic expansion, compound returns, and inflation. If you zoom out and look at the 150 year history of the S&P index you'll see what I mean, instead of an explosive start and tapering it off it's completely flipped.
3. Market Cycles & Bitcoin's Exponential Bubbles:
Bitcoin, while seemingly following an overarching S-curve of technology adoption, has displayed several smaller exponential growth bubbles within. Roughly every four years (often associated with its halving events), Bitcoin has experienced these explosive growth phases. Each time, after achieving meteoric price heights, a correction occurs, but generally, the new 'low' is significantly higher than the previous cycles. This showcases the classic characteristics of an exponential growth bubble within the broader S-curve.
4. Predicting the Next Growth Phase:
Given Bitcoin's historical behavior and aligning with its adoption curve, the next significant price milestone often touted is the $100K mark. Interestingly, this projection remains valid even if Bitcoin were to retract to a price point as low as $10K. Such a drop, while severe, would still fit within the broader adoption S-curve and the pattern of previous growth bubbles, making the journey to $200K a plausible scenario in the subsequent explosive growth phase. I've marked these routes as A and B on the chart.
Conclusion:
Drawing parallels between technology adoption, exponential growth curves, and Bitcoin's market behavior provides an intriguing perspective on its potential future. As with all investments, predicting exact trajectories is challenging, and risks are inherent. However, understanding these patterns can provide valuable context for the road ahead.
Thought it would be worthwhile doing a BTC post and charting it's progression to the fabled 100K mark (and beyond) , covering some key takeaways from the zoomed out view of it's 14 year history.
1. The Technology Adoption Curve:
At the heart of understanding many modern innovations lies the 'Technology Adoption Curve' or S-curve. For example:
Radios: Took decades before they became a household item.
Televisions: Witnessed rapid adoption in the latter half of the 20th century.
Personal Computers: From a luxury to a necessity within a generation.
The Internet: Evolved from an academic tool to an indispensable global network in just years.
Each of these technologies followed an S-curve pattern: slow initial adoption, explosive middle-phase growth, and then saturation as nearly everyone who was going to use the technology began doing so. When looking at the 14 year history of Bitcoin it's hard to ignore the current parallels with this pattern, an explosive start followed by, while still impressive, tapering returns.
2. Exponential Growth Curves:
Distinct from the S-curve is the exponential growth curve, representing constant growth over time. This differs from the S-curve, which indicates a saturation point. Instead, an exponential curve suggests persistent, compound growth – the kind we often see in the stock market over extended periods due to factors like economic expansion, compound returns, and inflation. If you zoom out and look at the 150 year history of the S&P index you'll see what I mean, instead of an explosive start and tapering it off it's completely flipped.
3. Market Cycles & Bitcoin's Exponential Bubbles:
Bitcoin, while seemingly following an overarching S-curve of technology adoption, has displayed several smaller exponential growth bubbles within. Roughly every four years (often associated with its halving events), Bitcoin has experienced these explosive growth phases. Each time, after achieving meteoric price heights, a correction occurs, but generally, the new 'low' is significantly higher than the previous cycles. This showcases the classic characteristics of an exponential growth bubble within the broader S-curve.
4. Predicting the Next Growth Phase:
Given Bitcoin's historical behavior and aligning with its adoption curve, the next significant price milestone often touted is the $100K mark. Interestingly, this projection remains valid even if Bitcoin were to retract to a price point as low as $10K. Such a drop, while severe, would still fit within the broader adoption S-curve and the pattern of previous growth bubbles, making the journey to $200K a plausible scenario in the subsequent explosive growth phase. I've marked these routes as A and B on the chart.
Conclusion:
Drawing parallels between technology adoption, exponential growth curves, and Bitcoin's market behavior provides an intriguing perspective on its potential future. As with all investments, predicting exact trajectories is challenging, and risks are inherent. However, understanding these patterns can provide valuable context for the road ahead.