The last couple Months wasn't easy for Bitcoin. I didn't analyse onchain Data, but i can tell just by how the crypto market behaves, that alot of money flowin out of BTC and into Alts, like i never saw it before.
I used to be a BTC Maxi, but the last Weeks almost forced me to swap my BTC for Alts to hedge my Portfolios USD Value and increase my BTC holdings.
Even tho i am in a couple nice trades like CREAM, ONE, ETH, VET, CAKE, KCS and some others that aint doin well like ICP and OCEAN, they would do much worse if i haven't traded the BTC pair. That's the Reason i wanted to take a closer look on whats really goin on with BTC right now. I think the FUD was just the Nail in the Coffin for BTC Dominance and i think this is overall good for the Crypto Market. We saw in the last Weeks how Alts start to decouple and starting to finally move more independent and dont get drawn down as much from BTC than they were in the past.
Bitcoin just touched the .886 Fib. (measured of the 28. Feb lows) after failing multiple times to break resistance levels at 59k, developing a rising wedge, breaking the demand line of the wedge, with triple bearish divergence on the daily RSI, MACD Histogram and even Stochastic. After that it broke thru the critical support area at 51k-53k,while every mini rally turned into a lower high again and again.
This previous support levels now acts as resistance and BTC failed to break back above it, which made it fall even lower to 45k and breaking another crictical support level of 48-46k. Horrible....
The only good thing about this is that if BTC could start to catch some bids, we could see triple bullish divergence on MACD and RSI on the daily and 4h chart. I think the only chance for Bulls to regain control over BTC is if they can manage to close this weekly candle above 46300$, the price level of the weekly 21EMA ,which in previous cycles always acted as support during the Bull Market.
If BTC closes below this level (and i pray it wont) i believe BTC could fall significantly lower to the previous ATH at 42k, which would make sense because its the .618 fib level, measured from the january lows at 30k to the ATH in April.
I used to be a BTC Maxi, but the last Weeks almost forced me to swap my BTC for Alts to hedge my Portfolios USD Value and increase my BTC holdings.
Even tho i am in a couple nice trades like CREAM, ONE, ETH, VET, CAKE, KCS and some others that aint doin well like ICP and OCEAN, they would do much worse if i haven't traded the BTC pair. That's the Reason i wanted to take a closer look on whats really goin on with BTC right now. I think the FUD was just the Nail in the Coffin for BTC Dominance and i think this is overall good for the Crypto Market. We saw in the last Weeks how Alts start to decouple and starting to finally move more independent and dont get drawn down as much from BTC than they were in the past.
Bitcoin just touched the .886 Fib. (measured of the 28. Feb lows) after failing multiple times to break resistance levels at 59k, developing a rising wedge, breaking the demand line of the wedge, with triple bearish divergence on the daily RSI, MACD Histogram and even Stochastic. After that it broke thru the critical support area at 51k-53k,while every mini rally turned into a lower high again and again.
This previous support levels now acts as resistance and BTC failed to break back above it, which made it fall even lower to 45k and breaking another crictical support level of 48-46k. Horrible....
The only good thing about this is that if BTC could start to catch some bids, we could see triple bullish divergence on MACD and RSI on the daily and 4h chart. I think the only chance for Bulls to regain control over BTC is if they can manage to close this weekly candle above 46300$, the price level of the weekly 21EMA ,which in previous cycles always acted as support during the Bull Market.
If BTC closes below this level (and i pray it wont) i believe BTC could fall significantly lower to the previous ATH at 42k, which would make sense because its the .618 fib level, measured from the january lows at 30k to the ATH in April.
Comment:
I was so caught up in yield farming and doin random stupid things in the last 6 weeks, that i didnt pay enough attention to BTC and TA. If i had, i would have shorted the 3.618 log fib that i have marked since below 40k and was also the target from when BTC was sitting at 10k. I will take this as a lesson to never sleep on TA ever again.
Comment:
Okay BTC failed at the .886 Level i mentioned before and its starting to look almost certain that we will touch the previous ATH in the next Hours.
Imo this is all because of the Elon FUD even tho there were some TA reasons for it. His constant market manipulating tweets, made me lose all the Respect i had for this Guy. Its a shame that the bullish start of last week, got devestated by his hypocritcal and stupid tweets.
We probably would sit above 60k if this wouldn't have happened and many peoples portfolios would look much better.
However i don't think that this will end the bull market but it caused severe technical damage to the market and wiped out 100s of billions of the crypto market and sent bitcoin below 1 Trillion MC again. Very sad.
Imo this is all because of the Elon FUD even tho there were some TA reasons for it. His constant market manipulating tweets, made me lose all the Respect i had for this Guy. Its a shame that the bullish start of last week, got devestated by his hypocritcal and stupid tweets.
We probably would sit above 60k if this wouldn't have happened and many peoples portfolios would look much better.
However i don't think that this will end the bull market but it caused severe technical damage to the market and wiped out 100s of billions of the crypto market and sent bitcoin below 1 Trillion MC again. Very sad.
Comment:
Bitcoin just reached the measured move of the rising Wedge, bounced of a downlsoping demandline from the mid march parallel channel and the 43-42k support level. Would be great if BTC clsoes above the weekly 21ema at 46.3k$.
Comment:
If Bitcoin manages to pivot here it will be the first time it shows class A bullish div. since 2019!
