Visualizing the MACD EMAs on Bitcoin for trades

The MACD is one of the most robust indicators that you can use due to the variety of signals you can use with hidden and traditional divergence on both the MACD itseft, as well as the histogram. Many people may tinker with the settings of the fast and slow EMA and they may look for crosses of the MACD and its own moving average, the signal line. Lots of attention is taken with looking at the MACD crossing the signal line for a change of trend but it seems fewer than would make sense look at the EMAs themselves, no matter which settings you use.

And even when people see the MACD cross the signal they don't pay it enough attention. We had a massive uptrend in 2017 and again this year and it ends with a MACD-Signal Cross. I posted on the MACD-Signal signal cross and lots of people pushed back. Lots of people doing TA on Trading View or YouTube commented on it, but still thought we would continue upward at $60K and did not have a proper appreciation for the cross given bitcoins history.

People saw a massive descending triangle in 2018 underneath a MACD-Signal cross and refused to accept it. The 12 and 26 EMAs crossed bearish, so the MACD and Signal line both went below zero, and people were still bullish. And really the charting come first. We get a chart pattern and then we should look to volume to confirm, and then we look for indicators to confirm.

Lets do a rundown on our current situation:

• MACD-Signal Cross
  
• Development of a bearish head and shoulders
  
• The MACD EMAs, the 12 and the 26, are crossed bearish
  
  
  What is missing is the Signal line crossing the zero along with the MACD, and I see that happening soon, very high probability, like over 90%.
  
  Just take a look at this chart below. The 12-26 cross bearishly at the peak in 2011, 2014, and again in 2018. There was no bearish 12-26 EMA cross in 2013. Very simple TA has taken that off the table. But many people are still on that hopium. The 12-26 crossed in 2014 and there was some chop and a bear market. In 2017 it chopped to form a W pattern with the C19 dump but when we BTC cleared the bridge of the W we ran.
  
  
  
  What do we do? We see a bearish structure and the easiest thing to do is look for historic support, be it chart structure or moving averages or do targeting based on the chart structure (fibs). Here is a quick look at targeting. Most likely the 200 will be support. If we have a NASDAQ dotcom bubble pop or a 2008 type recession we could go lower. The linked ideas have a variety of long term (years) and intermediate (months) for if we go into a bear market or the dotcom type bust.
  
  
  
  Once again the charting isn't hard. It isn't hard to see the MACD-Signal cross and it isn't hard to see the 12-26 EMA cross bearish. It isn't hard to see the descending triangle and head and shoulders in 2017 and right now. But what is hard is accepting the facts in the charts against your hopes and bias.
  
  
  
  The chances that this resolves to the downside are extraordinarily high. The chances that this formation breaks to the upside is very low. We could have a conversation on if this will lead to a V-shaped recovery or a prolonged downtrend. Will we get over-performance or under-performance to the downside? All these conversations will very likely end up happing more in the future than conversations trying to target $100k or $300k or any other upside target before we talk to the downside.
  
  Thoughts?