Felix000
Long

#crypto #bitcoin mega quant move here's how and why Y/N

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Here's what you need to know:

MACD settings:- Fast Length 6; Slow Length 13; Source: Close; Signal Smoothing 31.

In the chart box volatility of the following pairs: 25 & 26 January; 10 & 11 February; 21 & 22 March; 5 & 6 April; 18 & 19 April; 28 & 29 April; 23 & 24 June; 27 & 28 July.

How to search for pairings - using just the Histogram for a red candle histogram must go up, and for a green candle histogram must go down.

"Bad Ass" futures expiry - notice when you get pairings in same week as futures expiry you could get wipsaw (price will break out one way - a trap before heading the other)

If you ask me why I did not post this when market hit bottom, well its because I forgot. It's not easy keeping up to date with so many weird signals at once, and scouting for newer ones. Last time I was making a lot of posts about this signal was back in May, and was using the volatility to calculate a measured move.

White verticals in the chart relate to days of futures expiry. I've marked the moves with yellow arrows.

Good luck technical analysts. No patterns are guaranteed to repeat for ever. At some point quantity and distribution methods have to change or price discovery mechanisms wouldn't properly work.

I'm sticking with my long for now, and my supports in earlier posts. Given the above I would not want to play it to close.

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Comment: Update: I've also currently been thinking what if the market was now to develop a consecutive Williams Fractal low? Maybe the low of 7th July 2018 could then work like the Fractal low made 25th October 2017? Also watching for a drop in the signal line which has previously been a sell signal.

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Comment: Update: Buy bitcoin Is it safe Y/N Check this out. Stoch 14,3,3, above 80 & Stoch RSI 3,3,7,7, below 20 like on Friday 27 July. Same was buy on: 26.04.18; 12.10.17; 18.10.17; 05.10.17. Only use Williams Fractal lows. NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Comment: Price has broken below Fridays Low, but not yet below my earlier supports. I'm watching the signal line to see if it ends below the previous days close. A yellow vertical on my price chart has always in recent times been a sell signal. Could it be a "Bad Ass" futures expiry trap - an observation mentioned above? Well, it would be the first to turn down - a trap, and then back up.

Closing out at break of Friday's low would have been OK as could always have got back in on another signal, but I've chosen to stay on instead for now watching the signal line, and my earlier support levels.

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Comment: Just noticed the last yellow vertical in my chart should have been brown colour, and will be correcting it.

My support levels form previous postings were as follows:

If "...... the market made a lower low than $7,374 made July 23rd. That's when both the Histogram and MACD went down together (indicated by purple verticals in each). Alternatively, could use the one from my previous post $7,333.1 . I've also extended a green trend line which connected November 12th 2017 low with February 6th low that neatly runs through a support and resistance zone that mattered to me..."

Also as mentioned above and previously I'm watching the signal line to see if it closes below the previous days close.

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Comment: To keep the bulls alive I think we need to make a massive green candle tomorrow and then go side ways down for anywhere up to eleven days. Get the Stoch down to oversold levels. If the signal line goes under then bulls are dead based on past performance.

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Comment: Well 1st August. Market continuing to go down. Not the end of the day yet but signal line is below previous close. If it ends that way, that means a yellow vertical on my chart. This has only happened before in recent times on 8th May, 8th March, 9th January, and 20th December 2017. I'll be looking to exit and go short. If market makes it back up above Friday's low then I'll review.

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Comment: Interesting Fib retrace $7455.6 (38.20%) also near one of my uptrend lines. Could a bounce here turn signal line around?

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Comment: Could do with a hammer like 1st April. Green or red either would do plus turn that signal line around.

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Comment: Interesting observation maybe? If current move is related to "bad Ass" futures expiry mentioned above then on previous occasions the trap has ended with round numbers and current low reached is $7469.5. Better had it ended like $7469. Maybe also a good thing for bulls that the high of 29th July was $8313.3, and not a round number?

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Comment: This is my end of day wish list. We make a double bottom hitting a round number lower low this time, and price shoots back up to say around $7,833 to form a green hammer with signal line closing in positive territory.

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Comment: Auto decision - short as signal line ended down (vertical yellow line on my chart now). Price may need to close above $8,038 for a review. Will see how market develops from here over the next 11 days.

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Comment: When MACD goes below zero after yellow vertical on my chart it has previously been on a day when the market closes straight down from the previous days open. Tomorrow maybe? Mega quant move looks like it's going to be down now (no traps - yesterday's low could have done with a round number for that).

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Comment: Being right at the beginning of the month it reminds me like February, but then in February market also bounced back sharply.

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Comment: Copy of My latest post 2 August (see post for chart)

Short

#crypto #bitcoin bulls are dead for now here's why Y/N

I've marked futures expiry volatility with a white box and yellow surround which are of interest to me for comparison with todays market. Gives me an idea how to trade it. For more on the colour coded meanings you can check my past postings. this could be your last chance to get out. Next up will be the MACD going below zero, and that will probably be straight down from a days close. My other ideas are included in previous post - comments section.

Market closed so well last week, hard to believe the nearby technical supports won't hold, and Friday's support looked so strong. If market rebounds to a certain level or I get reverse signals then I'll review.

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Comment: Light blue (turquoise) vertical on the chart is when the MACD goes below zero which is due to happen soon. Maybe from today's close. I've taken it out of the above chart, but its in my previous posting.

Comment: Also in above chart I'm only showing the signal line of the MACD as that is what got me to go short, although I was already minded to do that when Friday's low was broken. Could have done with a round number low yesterday for a rebound and didn't get it. Also could have done with a green hammer or other to keep that signal line form going down - didn't get it. Bad news.
Comment: So I'm now looking ahead on my chart - where are the breaks? Do we need the signal line to drop below zero for a useful bounce.........?

Note: The important idea to grasp about all my research is to get yourself some machine learning software, instruct it to start learning how to trade the price volatilities of the coloured verticals below my chart (and don't forget the order of the colours). Nobody else is going to tell you that because they're all instead just trying to emulate their heroes i.e. what can already be seen all over the place in the public domain, or, depending on what they can afford by subscription.

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Also for the machine the learning note above don't forget some other key points of volatility which I have followed like the day of futures expiry, and high to low volatility of the following pairs: 25 & 26 January; 10 & 11 February; 21 & 22 March; 5 & 6 April; 18 & 19 April; 28 & 29 April; 23 & 24 June; 27 & 28 July. How to search for pairings - using just the Histogram for a red candle histogram must go up, and for a green candle histogram must go down.

Get the machine to search for volatility series like the above and optimise their trading opportunities there are loads more than the ones I'm illustrating. The market is a vast ocean.

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Comment: Based on volatility of day when MACD last broke above zero, and based on past pattern. I don't expect to see a bounce before price crashes through $6,750 Y/N.

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Comment: Have updated some of my vertical coloured bars - some light blue ones were missing in the MACD and others like yellow had moved about which can happen when I'm moving the chart backwards and forwards - need to use a lock more often.

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Comment: If the MACD fails then we go to the volatility of the day when the Histogram last broke above zero, and based on past pattern I'd expect a bounce there after crashing through $6,389. Failing that based on past pattern the price could go lower.

Hard to believe with all the positive news that's been coming out on the wire that one of these bounces isn't going to break the downtrend since December 2017. Hoping for the best, and preparing for the worst.

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Comment: My latest chart posting:

#bitcoin bulls need to break these dumb bear patterns Y/N
Comment: Here is my latest comment but you'll have to check latest postings or use my custom MACD (6, 13, close, 31) to work it:

Can't beat a machine learner using my signals but here is an interesting observation - see what happens when the market makes two consecutive lows ending in round numbers after the MACD has gone below zero, and price breaks lower. Try it with highs in reverse as well going back to 22nd Dec 2017.

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Comment: Given todays awaited news announcement it's not worth me continuing to be short for now. Will those "dumb bear patterns" be destroyed this week, would be great.

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Comment: If there is no big news announcement coming out today I would have kept my short. Oh well. Always time to get back in.
Comment: Flipping annoying back to short.

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Comment: My latest chart post shows key bull patterns:

#bitcoin bears need to break these dumb bull patterns Y/N
Comment: Copy of my latest post but you'll have to revert to the new published chart.

#bitcoin how to spot bull/bear exhaustion and manipulation Y/N

I've boxed up all the voatilities of all the consecutive lows ending with round numbers with purple boders and white background. I've joined up all the consecutive highs with round numbers using yellow lines. Hope there are no errors.

First thing you'll notice is that the market isn't so manipulated anymore hence fewer consecutive round number days - just my theory.

Next you'll notice that many of these blocks have usefull breakouts, and many signal market exhaustion at extreem highs or lows. Will it continue same?

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Comment: Anybody comparing the first 17 days of August with first 17 days of December 2017 in reverse, or, with the first 14 days of September 2017. Unless price can reach a significant fractal high... watch out the next leg.

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