Taiwan_Bear

BTC multi timeframe analysis

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
On the weekly timeframe

Price is still in range consolidation between $8,400 - $10,200. Right above $10,000 there are also resistance levels at $11,000 & $14,000. This means any aggressive buying at this price range isn't the best way to trade. If you have followed my previous long term calls and still hold positions from $7k, we have nothing to worry about.

Price has consolidated in the current range for longer than expected. In a situation like this, I am leaning slightly (60%) towards a bullish continuation price actions. This means there is a possibility to complete the bigger AB=CD pattern on the weekly timeframe @ roughly $13,000 - $14,000.

On the daily timeframe

Although I am leaning towards continuation of upside, we can't ignore the possibility of fake breakdown first similar to what happened to GBPUSD (ie. a breakdown of recent support followed by double bottom, then break above the neckline of the double bottom). If this happens, it would be a very good opportunity to buy with clear stop loss level, and a change of momentum.

On the 4hr timeframe (as shown in the main chart)
Clear downtrend line has emerged. If market can break above the trendline, it can be an opportunity for us to go long. However, there are 3 conditions that need to be satisfied:
1. Need to hold & consolidate above $9150 and push towards the trendline
2. Breakout candle should be decisive (but not too big otherwise rr is not ideal)
3. Buy on pullback

The target and instructions of how to move SL are both shown on the chart.

And guys, please, if you can't be bothered to read, don't tell me that I have no idea about trading. You are more than welcomed to ask me questions in the comments below and I am happy to answer them.

One can be wrong, but don't lose anything.
One can be right, but don't win anything.

If trade idea is never validated, it means that I never incur a loss. If you have followed me for some time, you know that I always tell you when I got stopped out. Anyhow, stay safe guys.
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