I've labeled this as "neutral" because I don't want to lead anyone into a bad trade and also because I stand by my standard pre-emptor: BITCOIN CAN ALWAYS GO IN EITHER DIRECTION AND THERE WILL ALWAYS, IN RETROSPECT, BE A TECHNICAL ANALYSIS-RELATED EXPLANATION/RATIONALIZATION FOR THE MOVE.
That said, the full-lifecycle Bitcoin chart never ceases to fascinate and mystify me. It's kind of like an archeological dig: full of mysteries and secrets and treasures and curses. I was looking at it yesterday and something popped out. I realized that we now could be, appear to be, forming, IN MINIATURE, the same series of formations that painted the last bull-bear market cycle.
Everyone already knows - the last bull/bear cycle occurred via a huge descending triangle capitulating into an "Adam & Eve" formation (ie, steep rise/quick recovery followed by a long falling wedge). That descending triangle only played out about halfway, according to its measured move, before forming the bear market bottom and starting the Adam & Eve formation.
Well - we now POTENTIALLY (emphasis on potentially) have the same thing happening, only on a smaller scale. We've had the same descending triangle pattern form. We capitulated from it but only to about half of its measured move, and now we appear to be getting some bullish momentum. If this weekly candle makes it to the 8900/9K area, which, incidentally, is where the weekly 21 EMA is currently hanging out (and a retest of that EMA would be completely normal and expected) we would essentially have our "Adam" formation, which, just like in the bigger bull-bear market cycle, formed by going roughly halfway back up the big red capitulation candle (this point would also be halfway). Then, if we start to form a long falling wedge that takes 4 to 6 weeks to play out, we will have our "Eve" formation - exactly as we did in the last bull-bear market cycle. After which we should expect our bull run/market to continue in rather explosive fashion.
What's even weirder is that a similar thing happened back in the the 2013 to 2016 Bull-Bear market cycle - with a smaller version of the bigger bull-bear pattern forming after the initial upside out of the bear market.
Of course, this theory could very easily be invalidated by a single red candle. If our next move out of this consolidation area goes to 7100 instead of 9K, it's pretty much invalidated. Likewise if after we go to 9k we keep going up or just go totally sideways.
So - this is certainly NOT confirmed yet. But it's something I noticed and thought it would be fund to share.
That said, the full-lifecycle Bitcoin chart never ceases to fascinate and mystify me. It's kind of like an archeological dig: full of mysteries and secrets and treasures and curses. I was looking at it yesterday and something popped out. I realized that we now could be, appear to be, forming, IN MINIATURE, the same series of formations that painted the last bull-bear market cycle.
Everyone already knows - the last bull/bear cycle occurred via a huge descending triangle capitulating into an "Adam & Eve" formation (ie, steep rise/quick recovery followed by a long falling wedge). That descending triangle only played out about halfway, according to its measured move, before forming the bear market bottom and starting the Adam & Eve formation.
Well - we now POTENTIALLY (emphasis on potentially) have the same thing happening, only on a smaller scale. We've had the same descending triangle pattern form. We capitulated from it but only to about half of its measured move, and now we appear to be getting some bullish momentum. If this weekly candle makes it to the 8900/9K area, which, incidentally, is where the weekly 21 EMA is currently hanging out (and a retest of that EMA would be completely normal and expected) we would essentially have our "Adam" formation, which, just like in the bigger bull-bear market cycle, formed by going roughly halfway back up the big red capitulation candle (this point would also be halfway). Then, if we start to form a long falling wedge that takes 4 to 6 weeks to play out, we will have our "Eve" formation - exactly as we did in the last bull-bear market cycle. After which we should expect our bull run/market to continue in rather explosive fashion.
What's even weirder is that a similar thing happened back in the the 2013 to 2016 Bull-Bear market cycle - with a smaller version of the bigger bull-bear pattern forming after the initial upside out of the bear market.
Of course, this theory could very easily be invalidated by a single red candle. If our next move out of this consolidation area goes to 7100 instead of 9K, it's pretty much invalidated. Likewise if after we go to 9k we keep going up or just go totally sideways.
So - this is certainly NOT confirmed yet. But it's something I noticed and thought it would be fund to share.
Trade closed: target reached:
I should correct something I wrote as, double-checking it, I realized I had it wrong. In the bear mark "Adam & Eve" formation earlier this year, the "Adam" part (ie, the first sudden upswing after hitting bottom), retraced about a third of the capitulation candle, which is exactly what we've done right now by reaching 8700. So, for this theory to stay valid, we'd need to spend to start forming our falling wedge from this point by going sideways for a bit and then starting downward, ending up back at around the 8100/8K area.
