This is probably my most realistic case-by-case analysis on Bitcoin.
If you are interested in a buy opportunity, BTC should probably revisit 7500 +/- 200 range, which is between the 9 week and 21 week simple moving averages, and also that area is a key support area. I don't think BTC will remain in the current channel it is in which is very steep, and weekly candle has developed a wick, which is usually (though not always) a sign of reversal. This chart at least gives some insight that you could buy in slightly cheaper than we are now.
If support zone #1 does break, then it will get concerning and we can really start exploring low areas again. This would be the biggest sign of a continued bear market, as it would indicate bitcoin is not worthy of a long term hold and it is more of a trader's asset.
From a neutral perspective though, it's hard for me to see an immediate breakdown below 7300 based on the overall structure. But it's also difficult to see gains from that level too, since we are up against the slant resistance that Bitcoin is having trouble to break through. Based on the previous cycle, BTC should be at around $13000 right now, but it is possible it was held back by the coronavirus and a concerning global economy.
Overall, I am just not liking the chart very much. Gains seem limited, and I am unsure who is going to do the buying. Usually, in any asset, retail does the buying assuming they'll make a buck, and richer people dump on them, but if retail is not going to participate due to a bad global economy, that leaves room mostly for the bearish direction, regardless of a bullish event like the halving.
A lot of bulls talk about previous fractal patterns, but my belief regarding charts is that "every trend has an end" and "every pattern also has an end". History does not always repeat. Any asset can develop patterns, whether simple or complex. A stock can historically have multiple repeated bounces from a trend line, but it is never a guarantee that it will bounce again. The idea extends to complex patterns like fractals too.
I think one of the most important ideas people are not considering is taking into account the timeframe of Bitcoin's existence. Keep in mind Bitcoin was created in 2009 in response to a financial crisis. Bitcoin has only been alive in an improving and booming economy, from 2009 until now. It has not really been put to the test in a bad global economy, which is what we will probably experience.
TL;DR
- 7500 +/- 200 is highly likely to be seen again, if you are interested in a buy opportunity.
- The fractal pattern may discontinue due to a bad global economy, considering BTC has only existed in an improving and booming economy.
- Wick on the weekly candle indicates a reversal more often than not.
- Buy areas are on the chart.
Just my thoughts - cheers and good luck to everyone.
If you are interested in a buy opportunity, BTC should probably revisit 7500 +/- 200 range, which is between the 9 week and 21 week simple moving averages, and also that area is a key support area. I don't think BTC will remain in the current channel it is in which is very steep, and weekly candle has developed a wick, which is usually (though not always) a sign of reversal. This chart at least gives some insight that you could buy in slightly cheaper than we are now.
If support zone #1 does break, then it will get concerning and we can really start exploring low areas again. This would be the biggest sign of a continued bear market, as it would indicate bitcoin is not worthy of a long term hold and it is more of a trader's asset.
From a neutral perspective though, it's hard for me to see an immediate breakdown below 7300 based on the overall structure. But it's also difficult to see gains from that level too, since we are up against the slant resistance that Bitcoin is having trouble to break through. Based on the previous cycle, BTC should be at around $13000 right now, but it is possible it was held back by the coronavirus and a concerning global economy.
Overall, I am just not liking the chart very much. Gains seem limited, and I am unsure who is going to do the buying. Usually, in any asset, retail does the buying assuming they'll make a buck, and richer people dump on them, but if retail is not going to participate due to a bad global economy, that leaves room mostly for the bearish direction, regardless of a bullish event like the halving.
A lot of bulls talk about previous fractal patterns, but my belief regarding charts is that "every trend has an end" and "every pattern also has an end". History does not always repeat. Any asset can develop patterns, whether simple or complex. A stock can historically have multiple repeated bounces from a trend line, but it is never a guarantee that it will bounce again. The idea extends to complex patterns like fractals too.
I think one of the most important ideas people are not considering is taking into account the timeframe of Bitcoin's existence. Keep in mind Bitcoin was created in 2009 in response to a financial crisis. Bitcoin has only been alive in an improving and booming economy, from 2009 until now. It has not really been put to the test in a bad global economy, which is what we will probably experience.
TL;DR
- 7500 +/- 200 is highly likely to be seen again, if you are interested in a buy opportunity.
- The fractal pattern may discontinue due to a bad global economy, considering BTC has only existed in an improving and booming economy.
- Wick on the weekly candle indicates a reversal more often than not.
- Buy areas are on the chart.
Just my thoughts - cheers and good luck to everyone.