So BTC apparently has been forming a descending triangle, which is normally a bearish continuation pattern. Naturally that would mean to look for a deep drop below the support line around ~$6600 (Red lines). However, this is coming from ATH rather than a higher value and also that descending triangles aren't generally used for such a long time period so it's hard to suggest it's continuing to drop past the support only because it's a descending triangle. Taking note from Leigh Drogen's article about descending triangles as bullish patterns (pasted below), it's possible to see BTC's price get pumped (those Leigh suggest it should happen 2/3 of the way through the triangle which has passed already).
Some people suggest $100k or above by year's end for various reasons. If we see similar action from early 2013 to EOY that very well may be the case (Yellow Triangle), however that time frame saw increasing volume whereas we've been seeing decreasing volume since the beginning of the year (Light blue volume arrows). In addition we'd have to see not only a sudden change to increasing volume (or at least stagnant) but also a huge and sudden curve in the price (yellow dotted line) which seems relatively unrealistic (or at least predictable).
If the trend ends up like 2013-2015 (purple lines), we'll see BTC fluctuate and bleed out to $3.5k until September 2019. If there is no sudden change in volume, we'll likely follow the 2013-2015 path. If we break support early, it just means a more painful bleed to $3.5k in Sept 2019.
However, if there's a sudden positive change in volume then we'll likely see it in July and go to ~$10k-$11k. At that point we'll know if it's truly like early 2013 or more similar to the 2013-2015 period.
To note: I've seen less and less sellers in the large volume OTC markets so perhaps a large volume buyer will either clear the order books or gradually increase volume with buying power as the OTC market is playing around with 100k BTC in each deal and the exchanges hold 20-60k BTC in orders to $10k.
leighdrogen.com/some...bullish-7d44771cf71a
Some people suggest $100k or above by year's end for various reasons. If we see similar action from early 2013 to EOY that very well may be the case (Yellow Triangle), however that time frame saw increasing volume whereas we've been seeing decreasing volume since the beginning of the year (Light blue volume arrows). In addition we'd have to see not only a sudden change to increasing volume (or at least stagnant) but also a huge and sudden curve in the price (yellow dotted line) which seems relatively unrealistic (or at least predictable).
If the trend ends up like 2013-2015 (purple lines), we'll see BTC fluctuate and bleed out to $3.5k until September 2019. If there is no sudden change in volume, we'll likely follow the 2013-2015 path. If we break support early, it just means a more painful bleed to $3.5k in Sept 2019.
However, if there's a sudden positive change in volume then we'll likely see it in July and go to ~$10k-$11k. At that point we'll know if it's truly like early 2013 or more similar to the 2013-2015 period.
To note: I've seen less and less sellers in the large volume OTC markets so perhaps a large volume buyer will either clear the order books or gradually increase volume with buying power as the OTC market is playing around with 100k BTC in each deal and the exchanges hold 20-60k BTC in orders to $10k.
leighdrogen.com/some...bullish-7d44771cf71a