We have a three day weekend coming up since the markets will be closed on 05 Jul. This presents an options trade opportunity because the options and CME futures will be closed for three whole days AND BTC could make a big decision at some point during the weekend.
I plan on entering a trade on Friday, 02 Jul at 2pm EST using options on MARA, a Bitcoin mining stock that is more volatile than Bitcoin itself. I may have a bias for direction and use an unbalanced straddle (ratio other than 1:1 for put-call). I will use options with an expiry of 09 Jul and post the entry here. I will use an options calculator to determine the strikes and ratio for the trade. At the moment, I like optionsprofitcalculator.com despite the 1990's web design.
This straddle will result in a loss if MARA does not move enough over the weekend. "Enough" depends on the put-call ratio and strikes used.
My current bias is down. If I were to enter the trade at this moment, I would use a 3:2 put-call ratio, which results in higher returns on downward price movements. My bias could change between now and then. I may be neutral and just bet on volatility with an even 1:1 put-call ratio.
I plan on entering a trade on Friday, 02 Jul at 2pm EST using options on MARA, a Bitcoin mining stock that is more volatile than Bitcoin itself. I may have a bias for direction and use an unbalanced straddle (ratio other than 1:1 for put-call). I will use options with an expiry of 09 Jul and post the entry here. I will use an options calculator to determine the strikes and ratio for the trade. At the moment, I like optionsprofitcalculator.com despite the 1990's web design.
This straddle will result in a loss if MARA does not move enough over the weekend. "Enough" depends on the put-call ratio and strikes used.
My current bias is down. If I were to enter the trade at this moment, I would use a 3:2 put-call ratio, which results in higher returns on downward price movements. My bias could change between now and then. I may be neutral and just bet on volatility with an even 1:1 put-call ratio.
Trade active:
Unbalanced straddle entered with these options:
5x $MARA 09JUL2021 26p at $0.14
2x $MARA 09JUL2021 35c at $0.25
5:2 put-call ratio
MARA price when entered: $30.66
Intending to sell on 06 JUL 2021, but we'll see
5x $MARA 09JUL2021 26p at $0.14
2x $MARA 09JUL2021 35c at $0.25
5:2 put-call ratio
MARA price when entered: $30.66
Intending to sell on 06 JUL 2021, but we'll see
Comment:
Link to options pricing tool pre-populated with the above options: opcalc.com/xcL
Comment:
Current look of the analysis:
Comment:
BTC still inside the teal triangle. Tightening up for something. Twitter and TV analysts are talking about volatility. The straddle appears to be the correct decision.
The solid teal lines are my entry for the straddle trade.
The solid teal lines are my entry for the straddle trade.
Comment:
BTC popped out of the triangle for a bit and is now back inside. Volatility is what we are looking for it.
Comment:
BTC is still hanging around that triangle in a tighter and tighter range. This trade should pay when it breaks. It could need until Wednesday afternoon. We shall see.
