You may or may not have seen people measuring the BTC Index cycle tops using the 'Trend Based FIB extension.' Measuring from the bottom of each cycle to the next top & bottom which gives them the next cycle top of roughly 0.618 either just below or just above. (not very accurate)
This also gives a false hope that the cycle we are in is going to repeat and people have miscalculated the measuring of each of the cycles somehow believing that this cycle will top between $300-500K!
However, this is not how I would measure the cycles.
Instead, use the FIB Retracement tool and pull from each cycle top to it's cycle bottom and turn off all levels except PHI 1.618 and 2.272.
On the 4th cycle add the 1.272 (white line) I will tell you why in just a moment.
The first 2 cycles hit the 1.618 (PHI) mid way of the parabola move in both 2013 and 2017 Bull Markets before correcting 65% in 2013 & 40% in 2017 then continuing up to the 2.272 Fib level at both cycle tops.
However, the 3rd cycle top in 2021 only reached the 1.618 level and not the 2.272 level. Why? Because this coincides with Steve Courtney's 5.3 Theory of a diminishing BTC.
Now that we are in cycle 4, I added the 1.272 level which is sitting around the $85K &
89K
level. Here you will see a green box that sits between last cycle top of the 1.618 (blue line) and this 1.272 (white line.)
This also gives a false hope that the cycle we are in is going to repeat and people have miscalculated the measuring of each of the cycles somehow believing that this cycle will top between $300-500K!
However, this is not how I would measure the cycles.
Instead, use the FIB Retracement tool and pull from each cycle top to it's cycle bottom and turn off all levels except PHI 1.618 and 2.272.
On the 4th cycle add the 1.272 (white line) I will tell you why in just a moment.
The first 2 cycles hit the 1.618 (PHI) mid way of the parabola move in both 2013 and 2017 Bull Markets before correcting 65% in 2013 & 40% in 2017 then continuing up to the 2.272 Fib level at both cycle tops.
However, the 3rd cycle top in 2021 only reached the 1.618 level and not the 2.272 level. Why? Because this coincides with Steve Courtney's 5.3 Theory of a diminishing BTC.
Now that we are in cycle 4, I added the 1.272 level which is sitting around the $85K &
89K
level. Here you will see a green box that sits between last cycle top of the 1.618 (blue line) and this 1.272 (white line.)