During my holidays, BTC has been following on the daily chart the smaller 1.0 fib circle from the circle patterns that I traced before I left. Not so much of a rally, that I didn't take coz walking in the mountains sounded better.
Now it looks we are approaching to a conclusion. We are going to hit the big 1.618 circle in about 1 day.
My first guess (orange scenario) is that even if during this time we are going up, the price won't run above $7200-7300 resistance zone and the 1.618 circle will send us down to hit the black uptrend line and the 1.618 smaller circle at about $5500; I think that is the lowest we can get for now. The daily bearish cycle has started already on the Stoch RSI, which supports such immediate retrace.
However (cyan scenario on the daily) the 2h chart (below) still allows to go higher from this point, to hit the $7500 red line and retrace from there; we are on a bullish cycle start on the 2h chart stoch RSI, and the RSI is low enough for a new mini-rally. But if this happens, the big ABC wave pattern (or bear flag if you want) would require the target to be about $4800-5000; I think this is less probable right now due to the support of the uptrend lines and the strong $6000 line, which extended its support zone down to $5700 but I don't think in can go much lower. Therefore the 2h bull cycle could be satisfied until next day only by going sideways and up to max $7300; I don't think bulls can break the big 1.618 circle yet, they need to make people sell first for that.
Now it looks we are approaching to a conclusion. We are going to hit the big 1.618 circle in about 1 day.
My first guess (orange scenario) is that even if during this time we are going up, the price won't run above $7200-7300 resistance zone and the 1.618 circle will send us down to hit the black uptrend line and the 1.618 smaller circle at about $5500; I think that is the lowest we can get for now. The daily bearish cycle has started already on the Stoch RSI, which supports such immediate retrace.
However (cyan scenario on the daily) the 2h chart (below) still allows to go higher from this point, to hit the $7500 red line and retrace from there; we are on a bullish cycle start on the 2h chart stoch RSI, and the RSI is low enough for a new mini-rally. But if this happens, the big ABC wave pattern (or bear flag if you want) would require the target to be about $4800-5000; I think this is less probable right now due to the support of the uptrend lines and the strong $6000 line, which extended its support zone down to $5700 but I don't think in can go much lower. Therefore the 2h bull cycle could be satisfied until next day only by going sideways and up to max $7300; I don't think bulls can break the big 1.618 circle yet, they need to make people sell first for that.
Comment:
The price tried to follow the big 1.618 circle but for a very short time. It was pierced by going sideways and we passed the 4.618 outer magenta circle from the other set going upwards; that circle pattern lost effect now and I'm going to delete them.
After a mini-rally to the $7200 resistance zone, the 2h chart prints a new bear on the stoch RSI by mostly going sideways. We are still staying on the upper quarter of the pitchfork, so we are probably going to follow the cyan scenario. But because we seem to near the end of the crash market, patterns may break sometimes. Going long can be a good option, but however better prices are likely to happen again.
After a mini-rally to the $7200 resistance zone, the 2h chart prints a new bear on the stoch RSI by mostly going sideways. We are still staying on the upper quarter of the pitchfork, so we are probably going to follow the cyan scenario. But because we seem to near the end of the crash market, patterns may break sometimes. Going long can be a good option, but however better prices are likely to happen again.
I might be lazy on updates after this one, since a lot of work is profiling at the horizon...