CountOnCrypto

The Grand BTC Prediction of Doom

Short
BYBIT:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
If you're bearish , this is the only chart you'll need for daily.

Firstly, looking at the volume this might be it for the bull run, the volume looks as if it's really running out of steam. The MACD is also looking like it's ready to tick red in the upcoming weeks.


Key levels are as follows - :

The main support levels are found between $11,200 and $11,300 as well as $10,800 and $11,000, this is what I call the danger zone; a break below could be a serious wound for BTC . A reduction of interest and increase of sweaty palms could see the start of the 2020-2021 bear run.


White: I believe this is the 'fakeout' level, we've previously seen it happen a few weeks ago when we broke around this level but sharply returned to 11.1k.

Yellow: This is perhaps one of the most interesting levels that I watch; mainly because of the volatility that follows. Volatility used as a tool in the right situation can be a make or break in profit and loss. However, between here and 12k (in my opinion) is a great place to swing trade if that's a strategy you favour.

Red: Here's where the real volatility begins, this level has previously acted as both major support and resistance in the past. The volume is usually sitting at a medium level at this price point; which makes it a curiosity to traders in a way as it could go either way.

Green: This level if we reach it between now and mid-September looks to me like an H&S formation, so I'll be watching that to make a potential profit.


Blue: My personal long-term target for the bear run (if it happens) it's very far away in terms of price but is definitely something I will continue to look towards in the future.
Comment: As predicted, we dropped down. The price reached 11663 after failing to break out far above 12k. I personally think we'll just finish forming the H&S on the daily which I'll (at some point) attach to this analysis. If you opened short from the top then congratulations.
Comment: Now we're around the yellow price point I mapped I believe we'll float around here before either dumping/ pumping. Looking at the low volume it looks like we're expecting more downside movement.
Trade closed manually: Trade closed, 70% ROE.

Comments

The problem is, there's no fundamental reason to be Bearish on Bitcoin.

Price has historically rocketed after a halving. Added to this, we have governments printing money for fun, weak dollar, gold soaring. I actually think the market conditions are there for BTC to do very well this year.
+1 Reply
@philw44, Hmm; eating your words now? :)
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philw44 CountOnCrypto
@CountOnCrypto, Nope. $10k area is previous resistance that is now support. Will range a bit from $10-$12k before finally testing $14k
Reply
vanmagnesson CountOnCrypto
@CountOnCrypto, The selling hasn't even started, crypto is too correlated with equities. You'll see $5200 and possible $3000. Too many over leveraged longs will get hammered. The smart money has already exited, that was the dip from $12500.
Reply
Great
+1 Reply
This is close to my targets $4200 to $5200..., TA can be thrown out the window when mass selling takes place. That will happen soon when the DOW which went from 18k to 29k on fed liquidity causing a massive bubble. But what I'm looking at is emotion....., Biggest election in our history, covid, 80 percent of businesses will never reopen. Mass rioting, looting, racial divide, and that brings us to the path of least resistance. What more can the FED do but start purchasing equities, which I'm probably sure they do already under the radar. The equity market will drop to 18k again before the election or shortly post election. I think Trump wins and the rioting that will happen will shake this country to it's core. I've will start buying percentages at $6200 and work my way down, my biggest order is at $3800. Possible we wick down to $1800. Call me crazy, but it could happen and it would be the buying opp of a lifetime. After this plays out the crypto market will decouple from the equity markets and we go so high, few can imagine. I see ethereum going down to $112 and could wick down to 80s. The only way you win in this world is taking chances and I think fear will win out soon, stop orders taken out with over leveraged 100x trying to buy the dip that keeps going down. Good luck...
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