On the 4th of May I told you that the bullish structure is still intact and I won't consider to short the market unless the price drop below $8,400. Then, two days ago I warned you again that the price has broken above the downtrend line on the 1hr timeframe, please do not short the market. I could have told you to buy the breakout but I didn't want to, as many of you would just go all-in on the breakout trade when no professional swing trader would tell you to buy near the resistance.
Why can you not exercise some patience? Some people even told me that they have added their short positions on the way up. That's gambling, not trading.
Yes, you can say I missed the up move from $7,000 to $10,000 however I have told you:
1. I longed when the price was between $5,000 - $5,500 and took profits at $6,850.
2. I didn't add my BTC longs because I still have 45% investment positions on BTC (40% bought at around $7,000 & 5% at $7,700)
3. I bought XRP @ $0.15 (45% profits so far) & STEEM @ $0.16 (300% profits so far due to HIVE hard fork). How many of you have bought with me?
Can you see why I am not worried of missing out the up move from $7,000? I have a strategy, but, do you? Or do you simply follow someone else ideas blindly? Or do you follow only half of the strategy?
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Market cycle
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While I am still expecting a pullback, the market shows no sign of distribution. If you look at BTC history, you can see the distribution period is roughly 1/2 to 1/3 of the accumulation period (see below chart). The difference between the period of accumulation & distribution "probably" means the big players still hold those long positions (lots of positions between $0 - $120 & $200 - $1200, and some positions between $3200 - $4200).
How I identify the accumulation/distribution zone is the period of sideways actions before/after market accelerate. The reason I say "probably" is because they are just my thoughts. If you disagree, leave a comment below.
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What does this mean for current market price movement?
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IF the market is about to go into distribution, it should go sideways for roughly 20+ days. And, if you combine this with what I taught you about what price actions to look for to short the market, you can assume that if price goes sideways for 20+ days and then followed by breakdown of a range box, you can short the market with better odds & better risk reward.
Previous idea about what price actions to look for:
But, what if the price keeps going higher? That's fine with me also as I still have 45% of my long term positions on BTC. That, is what I called strategy - I am in a comfortable situation regardless which direction the market goes.
Currently, I believe many sellers have set their stop loss right above $10,500 and the big players will probably hunt those stop losses. For that reason, I have set my take profit of my $7,700 positions (5% of my BTC portfoilo) @ $11,000. I am not predicting whether or not the price will break above $10,500, I am only saying if it does, I will take some more long term positions off the table.
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Past winning trades: (without leverage)
Bought between $5,000 - $5,500. Sold around $6,850 (30% profits)
Entered $8450, sold around $9,800 (16% profits)
Bitcoin dropped from 12k to 7k as expected (40% fall)
Perfect call on $12k weekly resistance
Bitcoin, perfect call (300% profits)
Bitcoin, bought between $6.8k - $7.3k (40% profits)
Bitcoin dropped to $3.5k as expected (40% fall)
Bitcoin, bought $6220 target $8480 (36% profits)
Educational posts:
2618 trade
Top-down analysis
How I draw the trendline
Risk management series:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Why can you not exercise some patience? Some people even told me that they have added their short positions on the way up. That's gambling, not trading.
Yes, you can say I missed the up move from $7,000 to $10,000 however I have told you:
1. I longed when the price was between $5,000 - $5,500 and took profits at $6,850.
2. I didn't add my BTC longs because I still have 45% investment positions on BTC (40% bought at around $7,000 & 5% at $7,700)
3. I bought XRP @ $0.15 (45% profits so far) & STEEM @ $0.16 (300% profits so far due to HIVE hard fork). How many of you have bought with me?
Can you see why I am not worried of missing out the up move from $7,000? I have a strategy, but, do you? Or do you simply follow someone else ideas blindly? Or do you follow only half of the strategy?
~~~~~~~~~~~
Market cycle
~~~~~~~~~~~
While I am still expecting a pullback, the market shows no sign of distribution. If you look at BTC history, you can see the distribution period is roughly 1/2 to 1/3 of the accumulation period (see below chart). The difference between the period of accumulation & distribution "probably" means the big players still hold those long positions (lots of positions between $0 - $120 & $200 - $1200, and some positions between $3200 - $4200).
How I identify the accumulation/distribution zone is the period of sideways actions before/after market accelerate. The reason I say "probably" is because they are just my thoughts. If you disagree, leave a comment below.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
What does this mean for current market price movement?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IF the market is about to go into distribution, it should go sideways for roughly 20+ days. And, if you combine this with what I taught you about what price actions to look for to short the market, you can assume that if price goes sideways for 20+ days and then followed by breakdown of a range box, you can short the market with better odds & better risk reward.
Previous idea about what price actions to look for:
But, what if the price keeps going higher? That's fine with me also as I still have 45% of my long term positions on BTC. That, is what I called strategy - I am in a comfortable situation regardless which direction the market goes.
Currently, I believe many sellers have set their stop loss right above $10,500 and the big players will probably hunt those stop losses. For that reason, I have set my take profit of my $7,700 positions (5% of my BTC portfoilo) @ $11,000. I am not predicting whether or not the price will break above $10,500, I am only saying if it does, I will take some more long term positions off the table.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Past winning trades: (without leverage)
Bought between $5,000 - $5,500. Sold around $6,850 (30% profits)
Entered $8450, sold around $9,800 (16% profits)
Bitcoin dropped from 12k to 7k as expected (40% fall)
Perfect call on $12k weekly resistance
Bitcoin, perfect call (300% profits)
Bitcoin, bought between $6.8k - $7.3k (40% profits)
Bitcoin dropped to $3.5k as expected (40% fall)
Bitcoin, bought $6220 target $8480 (36% profits)
Educational posts:
2618 trade
Top-down analysis
How I draw the trendline
Risk management series:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
- Chapter 1: 1% rule
- Chapter 2: How to calculate position size?
- Chapter 3: The Sweet Spot