Other than being extremely overbought, BTC is also a sell based on Wyckoff Distribution.
Based on a method I devised to trade Wyckoff Distribution, I’ve placed parallel pink lines to indicate sell and buy zones, I’ve also placed a diagonal pink support line. Currently, BTC’s price is in my sell zone. If this idea plays out, then then BTC is going to drop to at least the pink support line. If that support line holds then I would not expect BTC to continue down. Instead, I would expect a new uptrend to start. But, if that support breaks, then I would expect BTC to enter my buy zone. In such a case, I would expect BTC to bounce off the thin pink line at least once before attempting to breakout above the buy zone. If either it breaks below the thin line or it fails to breakout above the buy zone after bouncing off thin line, then I would expect BTC to enter the bottom region of buy zone.
Note: price does not need to test the very bottom line. Any price in the lower area would be a definite buy.
Edit: I intended to make the buy zone’s bottom trend line as thick as its top trend line. Only the middle line should be thin.
Separate from my method to trade Distribution, I’ve placed several blue lines to forecast possible price targets. The top blue horizontal line indicates the possible local peak that price is going to reach before its decent. The bottom blue line indicates the lowest price I think BTC could reach before its next uptrend. The vertical line is a time forecast of when I think BTC could bottom based on combining my Distribution method and my estimated lowest possible price.
Note: If this idea plays out, I am NOT suggesting to wait for price to reach my estimated lowest price to buy. Despite it being my estimate, I would likely not even wait for that price.
Two additional comments:
This idea is more optimistic than my previous idea on shorting BTC. In my previous idea, I consider that BTC might drop to a previous Accumulation zone I identified between $300 and $400.
Edit: I just checked and that Accumulation zone is actually between about $160 and $300.
Lastly, I have yet to see my Distribution trading method play out in BTC, but I have used it to trade equities successfully. The reason for this is because I did not trade BTC prior to October 2017, and, as I depict it, since December 2017, BTC entered and has remained in Distribution.
Based on a method I devised to trade Wyckoff Distribution, I’ve placed parallel pink lines to indicate sell and buy zones, I’ve also placed a diagonal pink support line. Currently, BTC’s price is in my sell zone. If this idea plays out, then then BTC is going to drop to at least the pink support line. If that support line holds then I would not expect BTC to continue down. Instead, I would expect a new uptrend to start. But, if that support breaks, then I would expect BTC to enter my buy zone. In such a case, I would expect BTC to bounce off the thin pink line at least once before attempting to breakout above the buy zone. If either it breaks below the thin line or it fails to breakout above the buy zone after bouncing off thin line, then I would expect BTC to enter the bottom region of buy zone.
Note: price does not need to test the very bottom line. Any price in the lower area would be a definite buy.
Edit: I intended to make the buy zone’s bottom trend line as thick as its top trend line. Only the middle line should be thin.
Separate from my method to trade Distribution, I’ve placed several blue lines to forecast possible price targets. The top blue horizontal line indicates the possible local peak that price is going to reach before its decent. The bottom blue line indicates the lowest price I think BTC could reach before its next uptrend. The vertical line is a time forecast of when I think BTC could bottom based on combining my Distribution method and my estimated lowest possible price.
Note: If this idea plays out, I am NOT suggesting to wait for price to reach my estimated lowest price to buy. Despite it being my estimate, I would likely not even wait for that price.
Two additional comments:
This idea is more optimistic than my previous idea on shorting BTC. In my previous idea, I consider that BTC might drop to a previous Accumulation zone I identified between $300 and $400.
Edit: I just checked and that Accumulation zone is actually between about $160 and $300.
Lastly, I have yet to see my Distribution trading method play out in BTC, but I have used it to trade equities successfully. The reason for this is because I did not trade BTC prior to October 2017, and, as I depict it, since December 2017, BTC entered and has remained in Distribution.
Comment:
Ok here we are, let’s see what happens! My estimated top price is about $18075.
Comment:
Lol whoops. Just realized BTC hit 18090 already so let’s see where it closes at.
