Everybody be welcome to the 5th Bitcoin Correction since 2012
In today's post, I will do my best to bring an objective analysis of the current situation compared to all the available data we have on BITCOIN!
Let's start with the current situation. How can we describe it?
- On the 21 of April 2021, the bearish market started. From that point, Bitcoin never made a significant movement above that level. That's why I consider it the beginning of the correction.
- 427 days have happened since that day (time flies, doesn't it?)
- At the moment, the price is 74% down from All-time highs. That means that 10 thousand dollars bought on the top would be 2.600 dollars now (that hurts, for sure)
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But how new is this situation? The answer is: not new at all!
- Since 2012, Bitcoin has experienced the same cycle over and over again! which can be described as massive euphoria followed by massive fear, on a dance that, at the moment, keeps repeating.
- To be precise, Bitcoin has crashed 80%+ more than 4 times since 2012, and we are about to reach the 5th if the price keeps falling a little bit more.
- The good news! is that every time that happened, the price went back to the cycle of massive euphoria. That's why I'm writing this post because I have two assumptions that I would like to share:
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Assumption number 1 (my least favorite): The cryptocurrency market is a massive Ponzi scheme that has been developing since 2012, and there will not be another time the price will make a bullish parabolic movement like the ones we saw in the past. Period, end of the story. If you are an investor, you are totally F, and if you are a trader, I hope you have a stop loss. (Alright, this is too dramatic, and I don't think that is the case, but hey! Maybe it is. Now let's go to my 2nd assumption).
Assumption number 2 (The one I love): This is another correction of a cycle that, based on past behavior, I expect to keep happening. So, a bullish opportunity may be close based on the levels we are currently are. And there is a lot of money to be made if we are able to develop good setups. I will expand this idea with some charts.
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I expect the bottom of this correction to happen in a range from current levels (75% decline) to a final decline of around 90%. I will use an old but effective way of detecting clear changes in trends: using trendlines (you can use the one you like the most, darling). The key aspect here is that I'm not trying to catch a falling knife, but I will be waiting for clear signs that a new trend has started.
Let's start with the current situation. How can we describe it?
- On the 21 of April 2021, the bearish market started. From that point, Bitcoin never made a significant movement above that level. That's why I consider it the beginning of the correction.
- 427 days have happened since that day (time flies, doesn't it?)
- At the moment, the price is 74% down from All-time highs. That means that 10 thousand dollars bought on the top would be 2.600 dollars now (that hurts, for sure)
----------------------------------------
But how new is this situation? The answer is: not new at all!
- Since 2012, Bitcoin has experienced the same cycle over and over again! which can be described as massive euphoria followed by massive fear, on a dance that, at the moment, keeps repeating.
- To be precise, Bitcoin has crashed 80%+ more than 4 times since 2012, and we are about to reach the 5th if the price keeps falling a little bit more.
- The good news! is that every time that happened, the price went back to the cycle of massive euphoria. That's why I'm writing this post because I have two assumptions that I would like to share:
----------------------------------------
Assumption number 1 (my least favorite): The cryptocurrency market is a massive Ponzi scheme that has been developing since 2012, and there will not be another time the price will make a bullish parabolic movement like the ones we saw in the past. Period, end of the story. If you are an investor, you are totally F, and if you are a trader, I hope you have a stop loss. (Alright, this is too dramatic, and I don't think that is the case, but hey! Maybe it is. Now let's go to my 2nd assumption).
Assumption number 2 (The one I love): This is another correction of a cycle that, based on past behavior, I expect to keep happening. So, a bullish opportunity may be close based on the levels we are currently are. And there is a lot of money to be made if we are able to develop good setups. I will expand this idea with some charts.
----------------------------------------
I expect the bottom of this correction to happen in a range from current levels (75% decline) to a final decline of around 90%. I will use an old but effective way of detecting clear changes in trends: using trendlines (you can use the one you like the most, darling). The key aspect here is that I'm not trying to catch a falling knife, but I will be waiting for clear signs that a new trend has started.