The current situation of Bitcoin is quite difficult. We are on a clear treshold. A lot of traders are saying that we are on a clear downtrend, but the same amount of people are claiming that we will have our reversal soon.
This article tries to sum up all important information you have to need!
1: Retracement of a parabolic uptrend:
There is a rule of thumb for the retracement of a parabolic uptrend. We should retrace to approx. the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement +/- 10%!
Depending where we start the count, we are already in that target. Although both ways (blue and red) have still some space for a further downwave!
2: The bloody support of Bitcoin:
The average cost of mining one bitcoin are at USA/Russia approx. 4700$ and at 3100$ for china!
A drop below a target of 4700$ would be savage. Nevertheless, i can't image that we will hit that target.
3: Manipulation of Bitcoin and the Bart Simpson Pattern:
A friend of mine found some unusual patterns in the orderbooks of several exchanges:
https://twitter.com/CryptoSyndrome
Altcoins are manipulated on a daily basis. It seems that bitcoin is now affected to this too, which causes all these 3-5% pump and dumps.
Thus, we are forming all the time the Bartin Simpsons Patterns.
4: Similarity to 2014:
Bitcoin now:
Bitcoin 2014:
5: Deminishing downtrend and a strong support
If we see the falling wedges as the force of the downtrend, then the force is diminishing!
Furthermore we have strong support which is holding now for the 4th time!
6: The Indicators
Having a look at the indicators at 2D, we have a good potential for an upwave now.
The volume is deminishing which should indicate a breakout soon.
The MACD is about to cross, the RSI was slightly overbought and is heading up like the Stoch. RSI.
The 200 EMA is slighty under the current price and act as a support.
7: The symetrical Triangle
The theory says, that we should have in a sym. triangle 5 times an ABC wave. The waves are not perfect, but we can construct them.
As you can see, the last four ABC-Waves formed always a 1:1 extention, which indicates that we have finished wave 5.
8: A possible Head and Shoulders
Even if this is not the most perfect Head and Shoulders Pattern, it's still valid!
We are currently at the neckline, which is a strong and important resistance. Breaking upwards should indicate a good uptrend.
9: The magic 6th of the month
Suprisingly we have on every 6th of the month a reversal. Why is that???
One reason could be the CME Group Futures with dates for the settlements always nearby the 6th of the month!
http://www.cmegroup.com
10: Longterm Bullish TA
The whole pattern could be seen as a big bullish pennant.
11: Shortterm Bullish TA
Leading diagonal starting wave1 of an Elliott Wave, since we have now an impulse wave, after the 5x ABC pattern inside the triangle is finished.
Our target should be at the top of the triangle nearby 8600-8800$.
12: Longterm Bearish TA
We also can argue, that we are currenty in an downtrend and the sym. triangle just continuing the trend.
Our target should be nearby 6000$ which is also a finished downwards Elliott Wave.
13: Conclusion
DYOR
This article tries to sum up all important information you have to need!
1: Retracement of a parabolic uptrend:
There is a rule of thumb for the retracement of a parabolic uptrend. We should retrace to approx. the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement +/- 10%!
Depending where we start the count, we are already in that target. Although both ways (blue and red) have still some space for a further downwave!
2: The bloody support of Bitcoin:
The average cost of mining one bitcoin are at USA/Russia approx. 4700$ and at 3100$ for china!
A drop below a target of 4700$ would be savage. Nevertheless, i can't image that we will hit that target.
3: Manipulation of Bitcoin and the Bart Simpson Pattern:
A friend of mine found some unusual patterns in the orderbooks of several exchanges:
https://twitter.com/CryptoSyndrome
Altcoins are manipulated on a daily basis. It seems that bitcoin is now affected to this too, which causes all these 3-5% pump and dumps.
Thus, we are forming all the time the Bartin Simpsons Patterns.
4: Similarity to 2014:
Bitcoin now:
5: Deminishing downtrend and a strong support
If we see the falling wedges as the force of the downtrend, then the force is diminishing!
Furthermore we have strong support which is holding now for the 4th time!
6: The Indicators
Having a look at the indicators at 2D, we have a good potential for an upwave now.
The volume is deminishing which should indicate a breakout soon.
The MACD is about to cross, the RSI was slightly overbought and is heading up like the Stoch. RSI.
The 200 EMA is slighty under the current price and act as a support.
7: The symetrical Triangle
The theory says, that we should have in a sym. triangle 5 times an ABC wave. The waves are not perfect, but we can construct them.
8: A possible Head and Shoulders
Even if this is not the most perfect Head and Shoulders Pattern, it's still valid!
We are currently at the neckline, which is a strong and important resistance. Breaking upwards should indicate a good uptrend.
9: The magic 6th of the month
One reason could be the CME Group Futures with dates for the settlements always nearby the 6th of the month!
http://www.cmegroup.com
10: Longterm Bullish TA
The whole pattern could be seen as a big bullish pennant.
11: Shortterm Bullish TA
Leading diagonal starting wave1 of an Elliott Wave, since we have now an impulse wave, after the 5x ABC pattern inside the triangle is finished.
Our target should be at the top of the triangle nearby 8600-8800$.
12: Longterm Bearish TA
We also can argue, that we are currenty in an downtrend and the sym. triangle just continuing the trend.
Our target should be nearby 6000$ which is also a finished downwards Elliott Wave.
13: Conclusion
DYOR
Comment:
Sadly Bitcoin is dropping now below the big red support line!
1)The first target shoud be now my Longterm Bearish TA at nearby 6000$, which should be the average cost for mining one bitcoin.
2) If we take a retracement of the overall bitcoin chart, than we have a 0.786 Fib. Retracement nearby 4700$ which are exactly the mining cost for one bitcoin at Russia and the USA.
3) If we take that parallel channel as the longterm trend and if we assume that the prarabolic trend has started at the breakout, than we have a retracement target at 5500$, which was the last big low.
1)The first target shoud be now my Longterm Bearish TA at nearby 6000$, which should be the average cost for mining one bitcoin.
2) If we take a retracement of the overall bitcoin chart, than we have a 0.786 Fib. Retracement nearby 4700$ which are exactly the mining cost for one bitcoin at Russia and the USA.
3) If we take that parallel channel as the longterm trend and if we assume that the prarabolic trend has started at the breakout, than we have a retracement target at 5500$, which was the last big low.
Comment:
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We have never really touched the red longterm support.
This COULD be a possible outcome too: