Greetings! This is my first post on Tradingview.
No one knows when the top is, but here's what I've done to try to guess what might happen and when the top(s) might be.
First top, April 12 - 19, $106k
- I got this date by using the Bitcoin Log Growth Curve and looking at the previous cycle. In the previous cycle, it took about 15 weeks from breaking the middle of the channel (red line) to the top of the channel.
- Using this as an approximation, 15 weeks from when we broke the middle of the channel would put us at around April 12 - 19.
- Pi Cycle Top indicator which is currently squeezing may signal a confirmation of this top at that particular time.
- The April timeframe may be much sooner than most people expect which would take everyone by surprise, just like what happened in 2017.
Big correction to $47k (back to the middle of the channel) - $56k (61.8 level) between April to June.
- At this point, most people would think that we have topped off, because they would have looked at the two indicators (BTC Log Growth Curves and Pi Cycle Top), and concluded that we topped off in April.
- Weak hands will sell, but we should see strong support at this level, and institutions who missed the first wave may take this chance to come in at close to the prices Tesla paid. This should force another move upwards.
Second and final peak, Aug 16, $217k.
- We would still be significantly below the Stock-to-Flow Indicator, which I expect we will eventually reach to. This would put us back at around $217k sometime by Aug 23rd.
- By then, the pi-cycle may print another Pi Cycle Top, similar to when it printed two tops in one bull-run / halving period in 2014.
- We have extended out of the channel briefly before, specifically to the bottom during the Corona dump in Mar 2020. I thus expect that it would be possible and even probable that we will see a brief extension upwards out of the Log Growth Curves channel, especially with institutional demand in this cycle.
The second peak is less probable than the first to me, so I will be taking profits at the first top, and re-evaluating the situation when we see a big correction, and whether there's a strong possibility of a second peak. If so, I will be re-investing a significant portion of the profits taken at the first peak.
This is not financial advice, and should be used for educational purposes only.
Appreciate any feedback!
No one knows when the top is, but here's what I've done to try to guess what might happen and when the top(s) might be.
First top, April 12 - 19, $106k
- I got this date by using the Bitcoin Log Growth Curve and looking at the previous cycle. In the previous cycle, it took about 15 weeks from breaking the middle of the channel (red line) to the top of the channel.
- Using this as an approximation, 15 weeks from when we broke the middle of the channel would put us at around April 12 - 19.
- Pi Cycle Top indicator which is currently squeezing may signal a confirmation of this top at that particular time.
- The April timeframe may be much sooner than most people expect which would take everyone by surprise, just like what happened in 2017.
Big correction to $47k (back to the middle of the channel) - $56k (61.8 level) between April to June.
- At this point, most people would think that we have topped off, because they would have looked at the two indicators (BTC Log Growth Curves and Pi Cycle Top), and concluded that we topped off in April.
- Weak hands will sell, but we should see strong support at this level, and institutions who missed the first wave may take this chance to come in at close to the prices Tesla paid. This should force another move upwards.
Second and final peak, Aug 16, $217k.
- We would still be significantly below the Stock-to-Flow Indicator, which I expect we will eventually reach to. This would put us back at around $217k sometime by Aug 23rd.
- By then, the pi-cycle may print another Pi Cycle Top, similar to when it printed two tops in one bull-run / halving period in 2014.
- We have extended out of the channel briefly before, specifically to the bottom during the Corona dump in Mar 2020. I thus expect that it would be possible and even probable that we will see a brief extension upwards out of the Log Growth Curves channel, especially with institutional demand in this cycle.
The second peak is less probable than the first to me, so I will be taking profits at the first top, and re-evaluating the situation when we see a big correction, and whether there's a strong possibility of a second peak. If so, I will be re-investing a significant portion of the profits taken at the first peak.
This is not financial advice, and should be used for educational purposes only.
Appreciate any feedback!
Just revisiting this idea again as we've reached in my opinion what the first top is in my initial prediction.
My prediction was that we'll see the first top between Apr 12 - 19, coinciding with the pi-cycle top indicator. The pi-cycle top indicator crossed on 12th April, and we saw the top on Apr 14th at $65k. I nailed the date, but overestimated how high I thought the price would go. I expected it to explode much higher if we're being honest.
Anyway, I managed to take some profits, not much, about 15% overall, and started reaccumulating again in this massive correction.
My price target for the low after the first peak was 47k in my original prediction. We're in that range today, but I think we could go even lower, as we didn't go as high as I thought we would. Anyway, I think accumulating anywhere below 48k would be good. Just manage your buys accordingly and don't put everything in at 47-48k in case this goes down more. My targets below that are 40k, and if we break 40k, 33k, and if we break below that, then 26k (following the Fibonacci retracement levels). That will be extremely painful, but that's crypto for you.
I'm still confident in the double peak theory, so I expect we'll see a bounce from there back up to the 120-200k+ range in the second and final peak, sometime in July / August.
Once again, predicting these things is really hard and I might be completely wrong, so do your own due diligence, this is not financial advice.
Cheers and good luck!