I realize I'm making some pretty significant assumptions here, especially about picking my July 12th, 2015 peak and then assuming that we have not yet reached our peak for the end of 2020/start of 2021 cycle yet. But I hope this at least adds some possible rangers to the conversation, and I'd love to hear how you think this should be adjusted. I also hope these numbers might provide someone with useful data for better calculations once we get through the first part of 2021 and see what happens there.
With that disclaimer, I've been analyzing the trends from 2015-16 and comparing them to the trends from 2019-2020 and here's what I get...
316 - July 12th, 2015 Peak
781 - December 12th, 2016
1,175 - January 5th, 2017 Peak
19,906 - December 17th, 2017
13,859 - June 25, 2019 Peak
19,906 - December 1, 2020 Peak
- Estimated January, 2021 Peak
- Estimated December 2021 Peak
Now let's compare the difference between summer peaks and December peaks.
781 (Dec 2016)/316 (July 2015) = 2.47 or 147.15%
19,906 (Dec 2020)/13,859 (June 2020) = 1.44 or 43.63%
Our current multiple is almost half the rate of the last cycle.
Half would be 2.47/2=1.235 resulting in a 23.49 % increase if applied to our June 2020 number.
Now we'll do the difference from the old July peak to the January one...
1,175 (Jan 2017)/316 (July 2015) = 3.72 or 271.84%
Divided in half using old Dec to July comparison proportions (271.84*43.63/147.15) = 80.60%
And old July to December 17th, 2017 peak...
19,906 (Dec 2017)/316 (July 2015) = 62.99 or 6199.37%.
Divided in half using old Dec to July comparison proportions (6,199.37*43.63/147.15) = 1,838.11%
And now from the old December to the January one...
1,175 (Jan 2017)/781 (Dec 2016) = 1.50 or 50.45%
Divided in half using old Dec to July comparison proportions (50.45*43.63/147.15) = 14.96%
And old December 2016 to December 2017...
19,906 (Dec 2017)/781 (Dec 2016) = 25.49 or 2,448.78%
Divided in half using old Dec to July comparison proportions (2,448.78*43.63/147.15) = 726.06%
And now from old January 2017 to December 2017...
19,906 (Dec 2017)/1175 (Jan 2017) = 16.94 or 1594.13%
Divided in half using old Dec to July comparison proportions (1594.13*43.63/147.15) = 472.66%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now let's take these numbers and apply them to this year.
Old July to January peak (80.60% increase) would predict a 25,029 December 2020/January 2021 peak.
Old December to January peak (14.96% increase) would predict a 22,883 December 2020/January 2021 peak.
Old July to December peak (1,838.11% increase) would predict a 268,602 December 2021 peak.
Old December to December peak (726.06% increase) would predict a 164,435 December 2021 peak.
With that disclaimer, I've been analyzing the trends from 2015-16 and comparing them to the trends from 2019-2020 and here's what I get...
316 - July 12th, 2015 Peak
781 - December 12th, 2016
1,175 - January 5th, 2017 Peak
19,906 - December 17th, 2017
13,859 - June 25, 2019 Peak
19,906 - December 1, 2020 Peak
- Estimated January, 2021 Peak
- Estimated December 2021 Peak
Now let's compare the difference between summer peaks and December peaks.
781 (Dec 2016)/316 (July 2015) = 2.47 or 147.15%
19,906 (Dec 2020)/13,859 (June 2020) = 1.44 or 43.63%
Our current multiple is almost half the rate of the last cycle.
Half would be 2.47/2=1.235 resulting in a 23.49 % increase if applied to our June 2020 number.
Now we'll do the difference from the old July peak to the January one...
1,175 (Jan 2017)/316 (July 2015) = 3.72 or 271.84%
Divided in half using old Dec to July comparison proportions (271.84*43.63/147.15) = 80.60%
And old July to December 17th, 2017 peak...
19,906 (Dec 2017)/316 (July 2015) = 62.99 or 6199.37%.
Divided in half using old Dec to July comparison proportions (6,199.37*43.63/147.15) = 1,838.11%
And now from the old December to the January one...
1,175 (Jan 2017)/781 (Dec 2016) = 1.50 or 50.45%
Divided in half using old Dec to July comparison proportions (50.45*43.63/147.15) = 14.96%
And old December 2016 to December 2017...
19,906 (Dec 2017)/781 (Dec 2016) = 25.49 or 2,448.78%
Divided in half using old Dec to July comparison proportions (2,448.78*43.63/147.15) = 726.06%
And now from old January 2017 to December 2017...
19,906 (Dec 2017)/1175 (Jan 2017) = 16.94 or 1594.13%
Divided in half using old Dec to July comparison proportions (1594.13*43.63/147.15) = 472.66%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now let's take these numbers and apply them to this year.
Old July to January peak (80.60% increase) would predict a 25,029 December 2020/January 2021 peak.
Old December to January peak (14.96% increase) would predict a 22,883 December 2020/January 2021 peak.
Old July to December peak (1,838.11% increase) would predict a 268,602 December 2021 peak.
Old December to December peak (726.06% increase) would predict a 164,435 December 2021 peak.