Bitcoin: BTCUSD
The flag formation stayed good up to the point when the Far East session took over, with no further visits to the lower
parallel - 2 strikes = 'hot' - and Bitcoin then duly broke higher as the flag had warned it would. But the rally only got as high
as 13462, some 18 points shy of the target before falling away again. So was 22 points out on the downside limit yesterday
(meant to test the lower parallel but it stopped just short) and 18 out on the limits of upside for the day - important to
follow how accurate or not these calls are so you can work out an acceptable margin of error to trade off them, is all.
The forecast should have said 'look to short again from upside target' which was remiss as no other upside targets were
mentioned - this was expected limit of upside. Should have covered that. But we make over 1000 points on downside and
took 2 longs which yielded close to 900 points on upside yesterday - where else can you do that on a quiet Saturday?
The first long was brave and not very easy to enter right off the lows as it never hit the lower big parallel, but the second
long at the other end of the day (as China opoened) was worth waiting for and worth following - but even that fell 18
shy of the intended target. No cigars, again. But Ok in quite tough conditions. We could have been wrong-side of this - in
fact since starting to hunt Bitcoin in deadly earnest from November 3rd - over 60 days of intense tracking and trading -
we have never been the wrong side of this monster once...when the chart has said bullish we have followed and
vice versa when it told us it was turning bearish. And then when it told us to stop being bearish, we stopped being
bearish. If we just accept that the chart is boss here and not us we can keep doing OK, hopefully.
Since then Bitcoin has relapsed back 800 points to retest the support line at 12617 and bounced...it should test 13000 and
come off again - still no really good clue that this bear phase is done yet - would be helpful to us to see a double bottom
created on next decline. Failing that, Bitcoin is hammering out a continuation pattern now which can be followed long
once 12987 is broken to upside for move to 13460-13489 again.
Day traders may look to short from 12987 with stops 50 above but ready to reverse long if 13000 is broken, as above. A
break of any support/resistance line by more than 20 points should lead to a test of the next line for day traders.
The flag formation stayed good up to the point when the Far East session took over, with no further visits to the lower
parallel - 2 strikes = 'hot' - and Bitcoin then duly broke higher as the flag had warned it would. But the rally only got as high
as 13462, some 18 points shy of the target before falling away again. So was 22 points out on the downside limit yesterday
(meant to test the lower parallel but it stopped just short) and 18 out on the limits of upside for the day - important to
follow how accurate or not these calls are so you can work out an acceptable margin of error to trade off them, is all.
The forecast should have said 'look to short again from upside target' which was remiss as no other upside targets were
mentioned - this was expected limit of upside. Should have covered that. But we make over 1000 points on downside and
took 2 longs which yielded close to 900 points on upside yesterday - where else can you do that on a quiet Saturday?
The first long was brave and not very easy to enter right off the lows as it never hit the lower big parallel, but the second
long at the other end of the day (as China opoened) was worth waiting for and worth following - but even that fell 18
shy of the intended target. No cigars, again. But Ok in quite tough conditions. We could have been wrong-side of this - in
fact since starting to hunt Bitcoin in deadly earnest from November 3rd - over 60 days of intense tracking and trading -
we have never been the wrong side of this monster once...when the chart has said bullish we have followed and
vice versa when it told us it was turning bearish. And then when it told us to stop being bearish, we stopped being
bearish. If we just accept that the chart is boss here and not us we can keep doing OK, hopefully.
Since then Bitcoin has relapsed back 800 points to retest the support line at 12617 and bounced...it should test 13000 and
come off again - still no really good clue that this bear phase is done yet - would be helpful to us to see a double bottom
created on next decline. Failing that, Bitcoin is hammering out a continuation pattern now which can be followed long
once 12987 is broken to upside for move to 13460-13489 again.
Day traders may look to short from 12987 with stops 50 above but ready to reverse long if 13000 is broken, as above. A
break of any support/resistance line by more than 20 points should lead to a test of the next line for day traders.
Comment:
Raise stop on long to 13100 for 150 profit if hit...get ready to close out at 12460 if struck and then we look to short from the upper big parallel if touched with stops 50 to 100 above it - this decline is not over yet - this is just a counter rally, so far, anyway.
Comment:
Sorry TYPO - target for upside is 13460-13480 (not 12460 as above)
Comment:
Day traders can keep buying off 13000 with stops 50 to 100 lower and selling off 13150 for now but it should break higher soon, so long as 13000 and down to the blue support just 20 lower can hold out...but we are still looking for another decline once the upper parallel is touched later on in session - we look to short from that test with stops 50 to 100 above the parallel when/if touched later today.
Comment:
Bitcoin Update Neutral to mildly Bullish near term
Well the rally attempt has only reached as high as 13360, fully100 below target - so far. repeated hits off 13000-12987
have given 3 or 4 chances for day traders to trade in from 13000 and out 150 or so higher. Now Bitcoin is pretty much
neutral, trading sideways and using 12987 line as support - unless day-trading still with advantage of tight margins on
Coinbase (or maybe Kraken if it will accept your money right now), the rest of us have to sit tight for now (though if still
long from 13000 can either take small profit around 13480 or hold with stop under 12980 for 20 or so loss if wrong from
here)...otherwise we await the breakout of this continuation pattern, or more ideally, a test of the upper big parallel
which controls this downwave - there have been 3 strikes on htis line so far, and the 4th should be good to short if we
touch it with a stop 50 to 100 above the line. The overall pattern remains bearish and Bitcoin is vulnerable to further
bear attacks whilst trapped below this big parallel - so if at any point it were to be broken on the upside and short stops
get busted, we know that Bitcoin is now trying to reverse, and flip from bearish to bullish, as it does so often, on a dime, or
on a line at least. Don't think this can happen in nearterm though, with one last sell off from the big parallel most likely
- but we still need a plan B if wrong...it will need to break that big parallel to bust the short out first - then look for a
retest of the line from above once broken...is it now holding up close to the line when retested? If so, it's turning...look to
get long/reverse with stops at least 100 below the line looking to buy the dip back towards the line when it comes.
Returning to the downside: though long right now from 13000 this is, so far, just a counter rally which should take Bitcoin
up to test the upper parallel and we short from there as above - but it can also lose all buying power at 13180, like
now...and if it does so and then the support at 12980 fails by more than 20 points it should force price quickly back down to
the lower smaller rising parallel from yesterday's low around 12744 now on Bitstamp (changing over to Coinbase charts
from later today/tomorrow as am advised it's easier to follow and trade off - any views much appreciated, please comment
if you have strong views based on experience of trading multiple platforms) - and then, once the lower parallel fails
to hold price Bitcoin should start to fall away again, using each blue line as a potential spot to counter-rally - but likely
to be weak until the low has been retested at 12050 at least and then if this fails it's likely to retest the lowest falling
parallel on chart, again using blue lines as the most likely spots for counter rallies to occur. More as the move develops
Well the rally attempt has only reached as high as 13360, fully100 below target - so far. repeated hits off 13000-12987
have given 3 or 4 chances for day traders to trade in from 13000 and out 150 or so higher. Now Bitcoin is pretty much
neutral, trading sideways and using 12987 line as support - unless day-trading still with advantage of tight margins on
Coinbase (or maybe Kraken if it will accept your money right now), the rest of us have to sit tight for now (though if still
long from 13000 can either take small profit around 13480 or hold with stop under 12980 for 20 or so loss if wrong from
here)...otherwise we await the breakout of this continuation pattern, or more ideally, a test of the upper big parallel
which controls this downwave - there have been 3 strikes on htis line so far, and the 4th should be good to short if we
touch it with a stop 50 to 100 above the line. The overall pattern remains bearish and Bitcoin is vulnerable to further
bear attacks whilst trapped below this big parallel - so if at any point it were to be broken on the upside and short stops
get busted, we know that Bitcoin is now trying to reverse, and flip from bearish to bullish, as it does so often, on a dime, or
on a line at least. Don't think this can happen in nearterm though, with one last sell off from the big parallel most likely
- but we still need a plan B if wrong...it will need to break that big parallel to bust the short out first - then look for a
retest of the line from above once broken...is it now holding up close to the line when retested? If so, it's turning...look to
get long/reverse with stops at least 100 below the line looking to buy the dip back towards the line when it comes.
Returning to the downside: though long right now from 13000 this is, so far, just a counter rally which should take Bitcoin
up to test the upper parallel and we short from there as above - but it can also lose all buying power at 13180, like
now...and if it does so and then the support at 12980 fails by more than 20 points it should force price quickly back down to
the lower smaller rising parallel from yesterday's low around 12744 now on Bitstamp (changing over to Coinbase charts
from later today/tomorrow as am advised it's easier to follow and trade off - any views much appreciated, please comment
if you have strong views based on experience of trading multiple platforms) - and then, once the lower parallel fails
to hold price Bitcoin should start to fall away again, using each blue line as a potential spot to counter-rally - but likely
to be weak until the low has been retested at 12050 at least and then if this fails it's likely to retest the lowest falling
parallel on chart, again using blue lines as the most likely spots for counter rallies to occur. More as the move develops
Comment:
So be raedy to close out longs now and llok to reverse short off the parallel/blue line junction at 13480 with stops 50 to 100 above the big parallel (but ready to reverse long again as above if it can be broken through...)
Comment:
Bitcoin Update Already doing it look to buy on any dip to 14000 or close to/next minor dip
A fantastic bear-mangling break above the bigger sloping parallel (maybe have forgotten how to count and interpret hits on this line - there are 4 strikes already but interperted the 3rd and 4th strikes down from the top as just 1 strike - my bad I reckon. Anyway the rally has been one streak of bear engulfing green, stopping outthe short for a 50-100 point loss and not giving a cat in hell's chance of getting long on any retest. It simply tore through thousands of stops climbing ever higher as it they got bought up. And even now it's bursting to bust 14002 -14100 range - and looking likely to succeed - so we're still flat but now looking to get long on dips to 13850 or if 14002 can be taken back and held for a few minutes we can buy here and use stop about 100 lower, but ideally just under 13800 for now
A fantastic bear-mangling break above the bigger sloping parallel (maybe have forgotten how to count and interpret hits on this line - there are 4 strikes already but interperted the 3rd and 4th strikes down from the top as just 1 strike - my bad I reckon. Anyway the rally has been one streak of bear engulfing green, stopping outthe short for a 50-100 point loss and not giving a cat in hell's chance of getting long on any retest. It simply tore through thousands of stops climbing ever higher as it they got bought up. And even now it's bursting to bust 14002 -14100 range - and looking likely to succeed - so we're still flat but now looking to get long on dips to 13850 or if 14002 can be taken back and held for a few minutes we can buy here and use stop about 100 lower, but ideally just under 13800 for now
Comment:
Have to say this long is struggling here and likely to come back some more...don't like the way it's sticking under 14000...look to close out as close to 14000 as possible now and we can get long again lower or when 14000 holds up better
Comment:
Comment:
Putting an orders in at 13482 and more down to 50 points lower - with stops below 13380- maybe they will get hit - very sorry to screw up at 14000
Comment:
Still not convinced this flag is good yet but would be good to have one last fast flush out back to the lower parallel where it's a buy if we see it...otherwise long on break above upper parallel and 14002 with stops 100 below at 13900 at least.
Comment:
Bitcoin: think the break out is good...continuation pattern before 15077 reached later...look to buy the dip, especially if we see the lower parallel of flag flash tested - otherwise we buy the breakout above 14000 looking for 15070 later in China
think this is written finished writing about 2 minutes late...already done it...still a buy at t12991 with stop 50 lower from here