Good evening and i hope you are well.
Markets another selling round today, after the much higher than expected US PPI created big bear bars that were quickly sold, just to break below again. Bears then could not keep the momentum going and most markets ranged afterwards. Oil did exactly what i said it would do for many days now and the 82 target is within reach.
bitcoin
Here my quote from last Wednesday:
bull case: Bulls probably want to print 70000 to increase the bear pain. Not much else for now. Market is still bullish because daily 20ema is at 58000.
Markets are fractal, believe it or not, i don’t care. Bitcoin will sell off 30-50% in 2024. Was 73805 the high for this move? I don’t know. We need consecutive daily closes below 70000 first. Close below 68000 will probably trigger enough stops to flip market always in short and the high might be in then.
bull case: Bulls got the 70000 and then some. Where to go from here? We had big profit taking at the new highs and market can only do things so often until it does the opposite. Can bulls get 80000? I doubt it.
bear case: Bears need to print consecutive bear bars closing on their lows to change the market character. Right now it would be a win for the bears if Bitcoin would not make new highs. The sell off today was strong enough to expect a second leg, i got a measured move down to 66000 and if we get there, i think the odds are good, that we just continue to sell from there. Just look at the monthly chart and what the market did the last time it made new all time highs.
short term: neutral here - probably sideways 68000 - 73800. Below 68000 is hell for bulls.
medium-long term: down to 30000 (could take 1-2 years)
trade of the day: Once market broke below the 20ema for the 15m or 1h time frame and printed consecutive bear bars, you had to get short.
Markets another selling round today, after the much higher than expected US PPI created big bear bars that were quickly sold, just to break below again. Bears then could not keep the momentum going and most markets ranged afterwards. Oil did exactly what i said it would do for many days now and the 82 target is within reach.
bitcoin
Here my quote from last Wednesday:
bull case: Bulls probably want to print 70000 to increase the bear pain. Not much else for now. Market is still bullish because daily 20ema is at 58000.
Markets are fractal, believe it or not, i don’t care. Bitcoin will sell off 30-50% in 2024. Was 73805 the high for this move? I don’t know. We need consecutive daily closes below 70000 first. Close below 68000 will probably trigger enough stops to flip market always in short and the high might be in then.
bull case: Bulls got the 70000 and then some. Where to go from here? We had big profit taking at the new highs and market can only do things so often until it does the opposite. Can bulls get 80000? I doubt it.
bear case: Bears need to print consecutive bear bars closing on their lows to change the market character. Right now it would be a win for the bears if Bitcoin would not make new highs. The sell off today was strong enough to expect a second leg, i got a measured move down to 66000 and if we get there, i think the odds are good, that we just continue to sell from there. Just look at the monthly chart and what the market did the last time it made new all time highs.
short term: neutral here - probably sideways 68000 - 73800. Below 68000 is hell for bulls.
medium-long term: down to 30000 (could take 1-2 years)
trade of the day: Once market broke below the 20ema for the 15m or 1h time frame and printed consecutive bear bars, you had to get short.
