🚨💡BTC: 'Hidden' Death Cross 100% Probability of Correction💡🚨
Remove the Noise!! This is pure mathematics, statistics and probability.
The 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross are the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA, which with 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, consistently (100% of cross cycles) result in a significant market contraction or expansion.
Note: I am bullish on BTC, but these macro economic cycles must complete and ignoring statistical probability because of over bullish dreams, sentiment or "conviction" is likely the no. 1 fallacy of most traders in all markets.
In the following historical analysis, I identify each cross,
For contractions, I use the price at the date of the Hidden Death Cross, to the lowest price to determine the price drop percentage.
5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC);
1. 26-Sep-2011: -60%
2. 07-Jul-2014: -73%
3. 28-May-2018: -62%
4. 24-Feb-2020: -61%
5. 30-Aug-2021: -....
- 100% Probability of Market Contraction
- Average contraction: 64%
Standard Deviation (Confidence);
- SD 1 (90%): Max 68% / Min 60% Correction
- SD 2 (95%) Max 69% / Min 59% Correction
- SD 3 (99%): Max 71% / Min 57% Correction
Market expansions are identified from the price at the date of the True Golden Cross, to the highest price to determine the price increase percentage.
4 True Golden Cross (TGC);
1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890%
2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192%
3. 29-Apr-2019: +179%
4. 03-Aug-2020: +531%
5. ......
- 100% Probability of Market Expansion
Expansion values too variable for significant deviation estimation
Conclusion:
I am a TA traditionalist, I believe that the price reflects all known / unknown information and that price action reflects human behaviour in reaction to the changing nature of the information to establish the best possible price at that moment in time.
Based upon the mathematical analysis of the price action, for example tracking moving averages, we can identify the trends in human behaviour and apply statistical probability to these trends.
As can be observed above, the statistical probability of this trend is considerably strong, with a 99% confidence of a drop in the range of 57% to 71% after the Hidden Death Cross that happened the 30th of August 2021.
The 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross are the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA, which with 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, consistently (100% of cross cycles) result in a significant market contraction or expansion.
Note: I am bullish on BTC, but these macro economic cycles must complete and ignoring statistical probability because of over bullish dreams, sentiment or "conviction" is likely the no. 1 fallacy of most traders in all markets.
In the following historical analysis, I identify each cross,
For contractions, I use the price at the date of the Hidden Death Cross, to the lowest price to determine the price drop percentage.
5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC);
1. 26-Sep-2011: -60%
2. 07-Jul-2014: -73%
3. 28-May-2018: -62%
4. 24-Feb-2020: -61%
5. 30-Aug-2021: -....
- 100% Probability of Market Contraction
- Average contraction: 64%
Standard Deviation (Confidence);
- SD 1 (90%): Max 68% / Min 60% Correction
- SD 2 (95%) Max 69% / Min 59% Correction
- SD 3 (99%): Max 71% / Min 57% Correction
Market expansions are identified from the price at the date of the True Golden Cross, to the highest price to determine the price increase percentage.
4 True Golden Cross (TGC);
1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890%
2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192%
3. 29-Apr-2019: +179%
4. 03-Aug-2020: +531%
5. ......
- 100% Probability of Market Expansion
Expansion values too variable for significant deviation estimation
Conclusion:
I am a TA traditionalist, I believe that the price reflects all known / unknown information and that price action reflects human behaviour in reaction to the changing nature of the information to establish the best possible price at that moment in time.
Based upon the mathematical analysis of the price action, for example tracking moving averages, we can identify the trends in human behaviour and apply statistical probability to these trends.
As can be observed above, the statistical probability of this trend is considerably strong, with a 99% confidence of a drop in the range of 57% to 71% after the Hidden Death Cross that happened the 30th of August 2021.
- What do you think?
