PREDICTION: Bear Trend for Next Two Years; NATH not till 2025
I wanted to share an interesting scenario for BTC.
If we look at the periods of "retracements" along Bitcoin's parabolic rises, we can see some definite trends emerging. For example, it appears The previous two Bear periods lasted twice as long as the previous, and tended to range within a difference of 4 to 5 times it's opening and close. Price also tends to slowly decline throughout the block, coming to a bottom and then returning to the upside in a kind of bowl-like pattern.
Therefore, it is quite reasonable to assume, if this trend continues, that we are now smack dab in the first quarter or so of this Third retracement period. As unpleasant (or boring) as that might be to consider, it's also worse to put the blinders over one's eyes, in my opinion. So if this chart proves true, we may very well continue down toward 3K over the next year and a half; before climbing back up, surpassing old ATHs by about Summer of 2025. And as we see, each "bullrun" is also less "parabolic" than its predecessor; therefore, this third runup would likely only see BTC multiply to arround 50K USD by that following Summer, 2026.
Of course this is just fun and speculation so use discretion, but, it's an interesting scenario (and quite plausible, imo) if you ask me!
In the overall scheme of things, this is still a great buying/ accumulating opportunity around the 7K level, where we are today.
tl;dr - PREDICTIONS: Bear market for next two years, crawling down to 3K -- Next Major Bullrun not until Summer 2025, which will take us to 50K within a year.
Happy Trading!
If we look at the periods of "retracements" along Bitcoin's parabolic rises, we can see some definite trends emerging. For example, it appears The previous two Bear periods lasted twice as long as the previous, and tended to range within a difference of 4 to 5 times it's opening and close. Price also tends to slowly decline throughout the block, coming to a bottom and then returning to the upside in a kind of bowl-like pattern.
Therefore, it is quite reasonable to assume, if this trend continues, that we are now smack dab in the first quarter or so of this Third retracement period. As unpleasant (or boring) as that might be to consider, it's also worse to put the blinders over one's eyes, in my opinion. So if this chart proves true, we may very well continue down toward 3K over the next year and a half; before climbing back up, surpassing old ATHs by about Summer of 2025. And as we see, each "bullrun" is also less "parabolic" than its predecessor; therefore, this third runup would likely only see BTC multiply to arround 50K USD by that following Summer, 2026.
Of course this is just fun and speculation so use discretion, but, it's an interesting scenario (and quite plausible, imo) if you ask me!
In the overall scheme of things, this is still a great buying/ accumulating opportunity around the 7K level, where we are today.
tl;dr - PREDICTIONS: Bear market for next two years, crawling down to 3K -- Next Major Bullrun not until Summer 2025, which will take us to 50K within a year.
Happy Trading!
Comment:
Okay, my math was maybe a bit (way?) off. Next bull run Beginning Winter 2022, As we go into the Halvening After Next... Then new all time Highs, ~35K by Summer 2024, not 2025!! :)
