-Repost of mine but without short term TA-
I think at this point we have to consider an unprecedented event that seems to be playing out in real time. Bitcoin is entering or has already entered a bull market in 2024... before the halving in April just 67 days from now. To be clear we have never seen this before. Historically we see a decent pull back leading up to the halving, a few months of consolidation and then finally a blast off to new highs. In 2024 I think the price action will be different and here are some reason why.
1. Every small dip is quickly eaten up with new buys and ETF accumulation, for example the ETF "sell the news" event was barely -20% and returned to new highs less than a month later
2. Bitcoin has never been so accessible to larger inflows of money, again ETF related
3. Its an election year, which historically is very bullish as each party in the USA want to make the economy look good and then claim it was them who did it, in turn being reelected or elected
4. The FED is pivoting, we can not only expect Powell to cease raising rates but he hinted at lowering rates not this quarter, but Q3.
5. Market makers are informed about the halving as well as retail investors. With so many players understanding the DNA of Bitcoin who would sell at this point? Large firms like Blackrock understand the halving fundamentally will increase the price of Bitcoin by cutting supply in half. They also have no need or interest in making short term smaller gains when they have the full ability to wait this out and reap the benefits of the first institutional Bitcoin bull run.
6. The S&P 500 just his a new ALL TIME HIGH of $5,029.30. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets are correlated with the stock market. As long as the market keeps doing well which is likely for some of the same reasons stated above Bitcoin will continue to increase with it.
For these 6 reasons I believe we have the perfect storm, a white swan event, for Bitcoin to enter a bull market like never before and increase in price leading up to a halving instead of a harsh retracement in the past. Don't trade against the trend and the trend has without a doubt been up since last year $15,000 -> $49,000 ~200% increase.
P.S.
I also think as BTC increases in value this acts as the best free marketing the ETFs could hope for. In turn making more people buy in. Its like an autogenous bull-run that creates itself.
I think at this point we have to consider an unprecedented event that seems to be playing out in real time. Bitcoin is entering or has already entered a bull market in 2024... before the halving in April just 67 days from now. To be clear we have never seen this before. Historically we see a decent pull back leading up to the halving, a few months of consolidation and then finally a blast off to new highs. In 2024 I think the price action will be different and here are some reason why.
1. Every small dip is quickly eaten up with new buys and ETF accumulation, for example the ETF "sell the news" event was barely -20% and returned to new highs less than a month later
2. Bitcoin has never been so accessible to larger inflows of money, again ETF related
3. Its an election year, which historically is very bullish as each party in the USA want to make the economy look good and then claim it was them who did it, in turn being reelected or elected
4. The FED is pivoting, we can not only expect Powell to cease raising rates but he hinted at lowering rates not this quarter, but Q3.
5. Market makers are informed about the halving as well as retail investors. With so many players understanding the DNA of Bitcoin who would sell at this point? Large firms like Blackrock understand the halving fundamentally will increase the price of Bitcoin by cutting supply in half. They also have no need or interest in making short term smaller gains when they have the full ability to wait this out and reap the benefits of the first institutional Bitcoin bull run.
6. The S&P 500 just his a new ALL TIME HIGH of $5,029.30. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets are correlated with the stock market. As long as the market keeps doing well which is likely for some of the same reasons stated above Bitcoin will continue to increase with it.
For these 6 reasons I believe we have the perfect storm, a white swan event, for Bitcoin to enter a bull market like never before and increase in price leading up to a halving instead of a harsh retracement in the past. Don't trade against the trend and the trend has without a doubt been up since last year $15,000 -> $49,000 ~200% increase.
P.S.
I also think as BTC increases in value this acts as the best free marketing the ETFs could hope for. In turn making more people buy in. Its like an autogenous bull-run that creates itself.
