The weekly BTC candle has approx 4 hours left, but it's currently flirting with the close from 17 weeks ago (end Jan 24, 7pm EST) of 32288.56 USD. If this holds, I see several key factors at play:
Let's get the context out the way first. First, a double bottom would do nothing more than establish a "lower bound" of the possible upcoming re-accumulation zone for BTC. Second, historically speaking, a weekly RSI crossover has held for AT LEAST a few weeks, with bullish-bearish crossover tending to be much longer after market peaks and troughs. Third, a close around this price would establish a daily RSI close around 25, indicating an oversell. Fourth, BTC bottoms in 2015 and 2019/20 finished AT LEAST 2.5x of once-removed BTC tops in 2011 and 2013, with diminishing returns from one scenario to the next (approx 5.33x to 2.75x). Fifth, the Apr 2013 peak of ~268 USD lost approx 75% of value by July, only to surpass 1K by December. Finally, so far we have seen market peak-to-peak stretches of 129 weeks (2011-D13) and 211 weeks (2013-17), with additional peak-to-subpeak stretches of 96 weeks (2011-A13) and 174 weeks (2017-A21).
With of all these factors considered, I am thinking we could face an optimal re-accumulation period for BTC as long as this upcoming week features a strong-enough bounce back. Not only does the potential bull breakout double bottom need to be confirmed, but BTC needs to quickly cross back over an RSI of 50 (in the next week or two, preferably) to establish a "fakeout" crossover for this week's candle. If that happens, we'll have a weekly close peak of $59985.26 (Apr 11 8pm EST) and weekly close trough of $32288 (or today's amount) to act as our re-accumulation zone.
Once there's confirmation of a bounce back, the re-accumulation period can start as soon as price volatility subsides. That could take a month or two, but waiting until then will allow risk-adjusted upside to properly established. Otherwise, adding to any positions right now would only serve the purpose of fulfilling entries at certain levels (which is also a valid play if you're a long-term bull like me).
Meanwhile, if the next weekly candles breaks lower... well, let's just say that would be sincerely painful. We're already set to close at the 50w EMA, so we're already in a sense at BTC's "last stand" to uphold this bull market.
I offer no financial advice, but I do think this chart is worth eyeing to look for re-accumulation positions. Good luck, and happy trading!
- Possible double bottom with close on Jan 24
- Possible bearish crossover with RSI closing under 50
- Massive oversell on the daily charts
- Historical bottoms relative to previous ATH once-removed
- Valid comparison to 2013 double-top bull cycle
- Valid belief in expanding cycle theory
Let's get the context out the way first. First, a double bottom would do nothing more than establish a "lower bound" of the possible upcoming re-accumulation zone for BTC. Second, historically speaking, a weekly RSI crossover has held for AT LEAST a few weeks, with bullish-bearish crossover tending to be much longer after market peaks and troughs. Third, a close around this price would establish a daily RSI close around 25, indicating an oversell. Fourth, BTC bottoms in 2015 and 2019/20 finished AT LEAST 2.5x of once-removed BTC tops in 2011 and 2013, with diminishing returns from one scenario to the next (approx 5.33x to 2.75x). Fifth, the Apr 2013 peak of ~268 USD lost approx 75% of value by July, only to surpass 1K by December. Finally, so far we have seen market peak-to-peak stretches of 129 weeks (2011-D13) and 211 weeks (2013-17), with additional peak-to-subpeak stretches of 96 weeks (2011-A13) and 174 weeks (2017-A21).
With of all these factors considered, I am thinking we could face an optimal re-accumulation period for BTC as long as this upcoming week features a strong-enough bounce back. Not only does the potential bull breakout double bottom need to be confirmed, but BTC needs to quickly cross back over an RSI of 50 (in the next week or two, preferably) to establish a "fakeout" crossover for this week's candle. If that happens, we'll have a weekly close peak of $59985.26 (Apr 11 8pm EST) and weekly close trough of $32288 (or today's amount) to act as our re-accumulation zone.
Once there's confirmation of a bounce back, the re-accumulation period can start as soon as price volatility subsides. That could take a month or two, but waiting until then will allow risk-adjusted upside to properly established. Otherwise, adding to any positions right now would only serve the purpose of fulfilling entries at certain levels (which is also a valid play if you're a long-term bull like me).
Meanwhile, if the next weekly candles breaks lower... well, let's just say that would be sincerely painful. We're already set to close at the 50w EMA, so we're already in a sense at BTC's "last stand" to uphold this bull market.
I offer no financial advice, but I do think this chart is worth eyeing to look for re-accumulation positions. Good luck, and happy trading!
Comment:
OK, so the next weekly candle has closed, and there's a bigger wick than body. So while a little green movement seems nice, it's not very convincing. The RSI is still under 50, which could help mount more bearish pressure if/when the death cross comes.
This upcoming week needs stronger green movement for sure if we're to ride this re-accumulation zone in the upcoming months.
This upcoming week needs stronger green movement for sure if we're to ride this re-accumulation zone in the upcoming months.
The big "negative" note is the 44.19 RSI on the weekly close, so as mentioned before, the RSI needs to flip back above 50 in the next week or two. This is why we need the strong bounce upward.