Hi All,
3 days ago, I updated my BTC idea (and EOS) to warn you about the bigger rising wedge formation (bearish pattern) as I was worried some of you may place long positions when you see BTC breaks above the small falling wedge. Soon after, BTC dropped massively. At the time I thought there was going to be a small retrace to retest the 8.9k structure but it never happened as the selloff was too strong.
Yesterday, BTC tested the support between 8.1k – 8.3k and has retraced 300 points since. From the 1hr chart you can see BTC has formed a double bottom and has formed what it looks like to be a triangle. If BTC can break above the triangle, the neckline, as well as the structure around 8.8-8.9k. That will be the first sign of bullishness. Ideally, it should go above 8.9k then successfully retest it as support. However, if BTC gets rejected by either the neckline or the 8.8-8.9k structure, it will most likely retest the 0.618 retrace (7.7k) & the grey trendline (connecting the low on 16th Jul & 15th Sep). If that level does not hold, then the next support will be around 7.2k.
In terms of EW, (I have gathered some assistance from my followers as well as some other EW experts on TV & steemit), the more likely scenario is BTC is now in corrective wave B and should have another leg down to the 7.8k level.
One thing that I would like to point out is that I think some of you are still waiting for BTC to drop to 4k. Personally I have been laddering my positions on some of the alts as I have pointed out in my previous TAs. I have also spared some of my capitals just in case the BTC does drop to 4k. However, if you look at the log chart below, you can notice that the long term trendline is upwards. This means that the longer it takes for BTC to consolidate or bouncing inside of the black triangle, the less likely BTC is going to drop to 4k.
Taiwan Bear
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Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
3 days ago, I updated my BTC idea (and EOS) to warn you about the bigger rising wedge formation (bearish pattern) as I was worried some of you may place long positions when you see BTC breaks above the small falling wedge. Soon after, BTC dropped massively. At the time I thought there was going to be a small retrace to retest the 8.9k structure but it never happened as the selloff was too strong.
Yesterday, BTC tested the support between 8.1k – 8.3k and has retraced 300 points since. From the 1hr chart you can see BTC has formed a double bottom and has formed what it looks like to be a triangle. If BTC can break above the triangle, the neckline, as well as the structure around 8.8-8.9k. That will be the first sign of bullishness. Ideally, it should go above 8.9k then successfully retest it as support. However, if BTC gets rejected by either the neckline or the 8.8-8.9k structure, it will most likely retest the 0.618 retrace (7.7k) & the grey trendline (connecting the low on 16th Jul & 15th Sep). If that level does not hold, then the next support will be around 7.2k.
In terms of EW, (I have gathered some assistance from my followers as well as some other EW experts on TV & steemit), the more likely scenario is BTC is now in corrective wave B and should have another leg down to the 7.8k level.
One thing that I would like to point out is that I think some of you are still waiting for BTC to drop to 4k. Personally I have been laddering my positions on some of the alts as I have pointed out in my previous TAs. I have also spared some of my capitals just in case the BTC does drop to 4k. However, if you look at the log chart below, you can notice that the long term trendline is upwards. This means that the longer it takes for BTC to consolidate or bouncing inside of the black triangle, the less likely BTC is going to drop to 4k.
Taiwan Bear
******************************************************************************************
Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Comment:
Comment:
Hi guys, I have received a few PMs saying they want to long BTC now. Please don't do it - as you are basically gambling. I can understand if you go long on LTC as the neckline of the recent double bottom is still acting as support. But certainly not BTC.
In terms of structure, as you can see from the chart below, BTC has broken down the 12th May low, as well as the 0.618 fib level between the 6th Feb low & the 20th Feb high.
In terms of EW theory, there is a chance that BTC is already bottomed. But there is also the possibility of continuation of downtrend to 7.8k or even 7.2k.
Currently, I am still sticking to my ideas from 2 days ago, that is, BTC is more likely to retest the important structure at 7.7k-7.8k.
If you want to go long on BTC, please wait until the red downtrend line is broken.
LTC:
In terms of structure, as you can see from the chart below, BTC has broken down the 12th May low, as well as the 0.618 fib level between the 6th Feb low & the 20th Feb high.
In terms of EW theory, there is a chance that BTC is already bottomed. But there is also the possibility of continuation of downtrend to 7.8k or even 7.2k.
Currently, I am still sticking to my ideas from 2 days ago, that is, BTC is more likely to retest the important structure at 7.7k-7.8k.
If you want to go long on BTC, please wait until the red downtrend line is broken.
LTC:
Soon after, BTC formed a upward wedge (black dotted line - bearish pattern) and two huge 1hr red candle broke down the wedge, as well as the trendline that formed the double bottom. You can also called the newly formed pattern as a bear flag.
Right now BTC is now below the bear flag, and momentum appears to be really weak. However, I won't consider shorting BTC as it is still above the 8.3k support. If you really want to short, your SL has to set at least above $8640, which is the price level before the huge 1hr red candle.
I do believe that the more likely scenario is the market is going to retest the important structure, as I have labelled in the chart below.