I've been meticulously charting BTC in search of my long term buy entry and ended up stumbling upon an interesting find. Though I'm bullish for the long haul, I've discovered how similarly this first significant pullback is moving in junction with 2017's first significant pull back. In both instances there was an elliott wave move to the high, followed by a correction to test and push just below the .382 fib before concreting it as significant support. Same breakout triangle formation leading to a breakout to the highside due to excitement for the bull run.
However, in 2017 we saw price not be able to keep pushing higher (likely from serious debate as to whether we've reached the top or not ( this has also been speculated this run). Fear of hitting the top may have led to major selloffs that inevitably brought price down to below the .50 fib but not quite reaching the .618. We've yet to hit that scenario, but when comparing the 2017 pullback markup to today, I find it quite difficult to not see all of the bearish signals flashing.
I'm not yet ruling out a further correction to the downside. The thing is, technical analysis works for a reason. Traders and investors alike make it so because they follow it. Coupled with the collective agreement that Bitcoin follows a "bull and bear cycle" we have a majority now looking to the past price history for clues moving forward. If everyone is collectively basing their trading decisions off of the 2017 run, we're manifesting a replay of history in real time. This said, if we do start to slip and continue playing out a reenactment of 2017's pullback, I imagine that around February 11th-15th would be the timeframe to hit our new low and I would be inclined to sniff out my buy entry around 24k. For now, until I see more push to the new ATH and concrete confirmation that this isn't going to pan out I will be holding off on further entries.
However, in 2017 we saw price not be able to keep pushing higher (likely from serious debate as to whether we've reached the top or not ( this has also been speculated this run). Fear of hitting the top may have led to major selloffs that inevitably brought price down to below the .50 fib but not quite reaching the .618. We've yet to hit that scenario, but when comparing the 2017 pullback markup to today, I find it quite difficult to not see all of the bearish signals flashing.
I'm not yet ruling out a further correction to the downside. The thing is, technical analysis works for a reason. Traders and investors alike make it so because they follow it. Coupled with the collective agreement that Bitcoin follows a "bull and bear cycle" we have a majority now looking to the past price history for clues moving forward. If everyone is collectively basing their trading decisions off of the 2017 run, we're manifesting a replay of history in real time. This said, if we do start to slip and continue playing out a reenactment of 2017's pullback, I imagine that around February 11th-15th would be the timeframe to hit our new low and I would be inclined to sniff out my buy entry around 24k. For now, until I see more push to the new ATH and concrete confirmation that this isn't going to pan out I will be holding off on further entries.