The next swing low for Bitcoin directly after halviing?
The Bitcoin halving of 2024 is approaching fast and will take place somewhere between April 18th and April 25th. With the currently prices of Bitcoin above 50K USD I have to ask myself the question when the next swing low in this bull market is going to take place.
Since this bull market started we saw the time period between these bull market lows being 13, then 14 and then 19 weeks. If we project the last swing low also taking place within this period we would land exactly at or shortly after the 2024 halving.
This also fits quite good into the patterns we saw after the 2016 and 2020 halving where the price of Bitcoin went lower first before then the bull market really went into turbo mode.
Should 53 K have been the highest price we have seen until the halving (which I doubt) the typical price pull back of 21 % would take us to around 41k after the halving.
Since this bull market started we saw the time period between these bull market lows being 13, then 14 and then 19 weeks. If we project the last swing low also taking place within this period we would land exactly at or shortly after the 2024 halving.
This also fits quite good into the patterns we saw after the 2016 and 2020 halving where the price of Bitcoin went lower first before then the bull market really went into turbo mode.
Should 53 K have been the highest price we have seen until the halving (which I doubt) the typical price pull back of 21 % would take us to around 41k after the halving.