I received this question from one of the dear readers of my recently posted miniseries. It got me thinking. I wrote so many things about whales and arteficial movements, psychologycal fractals and broken market. ( The phenomenon I call bitcoin turning into b*tchcoin :P )
Once I received a question whether one should buy or sell now, it is so confusing. As answer I made a post about risk.
And now the whales themselves. Can you calculate their low-scale moves? I don't really think so. Can you trick them? I don't think so. You can't beat or trick an opponent who has the right to change the game's rules, or has the possibility to use unfair moves that you can not use. But you can live with them. In what manner, that depends on the individual.
I think there are three very basic trading styles a crypto investor can follow, and practically all of them are different manners of handling whales. Of course these are totally subjective and made up groups, just my idea...
- First, if you try to day trade / trade on short scale, ride the actual waves like a surfer, then I think you should have a very good knowledge and experience. This is true for any market, and even more so for the crypto market, because it involves much more risk and is much less predictable, often the rules and patterns of markets don't apply to it. That's because it is unregulated and easily manipulated - but I have already written thoughts about that in my previous ideas. But even here in this chaotic and essentially hard-to-predict market, there are periods when the general rules of trading do exist, and therefore you can base a trade on classic trading analysis during these times.
For example before the beginning of this rally there was a relatively flat period in the market after the large collapse. It needed a hit to move. The hit was given to the waiting market, and the direction of this hit was to the upside. This initial pump, and the few ones that followed it, essentially defined the direction, the trend, and overall mood after a flat period. Many pumps and sudden increase of price made small investors happy, then, enthusiastic, then euphoric. This is a kind of "normal", "classic" up-trend happy market which was initiated by a pump as ignition. You could base analysis and calculation on that market. These market periods can be used if you are an experienced trader. And similarly, a falling market with an obvious downtrend and fear can also be used... again, if you are an experienced trader. "Go with the trend, it is your friend" you might hear.
Now we experience a change, and the market is much less predictable, we can see the quite frequent and confusing up-and-down pumps and dumps, it's rather chaotic. You can't base a classic trading style on that. I suppose even the very experienced investors can burn themselves easily. And the confusion is getting clearer and clearer by the day. Not just on the posted charts, which say absolutely contrarian things.
If you look closer and on a bit smaller scale, you can notice that between these frequent and rather violent pumps and dumps the market is getting rather flat. Small investors are afraid to move because of the confison. They need a convincing movement, a direction. Just as at the beginning of this rally, at the end of the flat period. And I think that the convincing movement and the given direction will come soon. Either in a form of one big pump or a series of pumps after each other, or either a large dump or smaller ones following each other. I have already written my opinion about what I think is more likely. Check out my previous miniseries! :)
If dumps come, then there will be a border which devides "correction" from "falling", and "opportunity to buy low" from "opportunity to sell high". I have written detailed ideas about these phenomena as well.
- Then there is the HODL technique. I suppose that people who invest in btc think that it will have a bright future. So if you simply buy somewhere, then you have a good chance to win much money in a few years, regardless of any whales and what they are doing on the smaller and medium scale. But you have to tolerate every up and down, minus and plus, win and loss, and just ignore them, until you reach much higher than where you began to hold. The easiest way is to not check the market so often :)
- And there are people in between. For example those who invested at 6000, and now have 9500. They often have little experience, but know what "trend" and "whales" etc mean, so they somewhat understand the market as it is. They can use common sense and make a decision that they feel and consider right. These people should keep in mind that it is always risky to sell or buy, no matter if it is uptrend or downtrend, you can always make a trade that you will regret, and then you have to wait for a long time to have an opportunity again. So even if you think that NOW it is surely the right time for me to sell / buy, be prepared to be disappointed. That shouldn't make you sad or lose enthusiasm. This is just a part of it, that's all. You have to keep in mind that it is virtually impossible to sell or buy exactly at the top or bottom, even near to it. So it is very likely that you will see missed chances and losses. So this requires a lot of patience. And the ability not to sell lower than where you bought in, because then you will surely book losses... there's the thinking which I followed a few times: "Although I am in loss now, but I am sure the price will go down, and so if I sell now, then I can put everything back on a lower price". Familiar? I always burned myself with that. Always. But maybe it is just unluck. Anyway, price will go up eventually, even if you see big losses at the moment. And you have to be satisfied whit what you won. It can easily happen that you sell with a good sum that you earned, but then you see that you could have achieved much more. Be satisfied with what you have, and be happy. When to be satisfied, when to harvest your grown crop? I suggest you can harvest your winnings when you feel that it is a decent sum. That you can get good use of it. That you would be happy if it just fell into your hands from the skies. When you feel that it makes a difference.
So long story short :)
My rules for myself are:
- dont try to day trade without immense experience
- even the whales have patterns on large scale, so the market does make trends, patterns, and fractals on the large scale, even if it is so chaotic and easily manipulated like crypto
- be patient, always. There always will be another opportunity. Are you in a rush to earn millions? If not, then be patient. It will have good results.
- be satisfied with a decent amount of winnings, and don't look at what you "could have achieved"
- leave a part of your invesent in for a long time, years for example, regardless of how the actual short or middle-scale market moves. So practically, have an amount locked down for hodl if you believe in btc
- never invest more than what you can afford. I personally think like this: first be able to ensure your day-to-day life, absolutely, for 100%. Then spare a decent amount of money, for example which is enough for you or your family to live for 2-3 years without problems even if noone has a work. And then invest. If you can not do this, but you still want to invest, then invest just a little, what you can afford from time to time.
This is not my trading advice ;) Especially not my investment or how-to-live advice.
Just thoughts that I shared.
Essentially these are the rules that I would like to teach to myself, and follow. It is very hard to follow them. But every time I thought that "okay okay, I made these rules myself for myself, based on experience but... buuuuut, NOW!... now I am sure I will do the right thing, regardless of it is against my own rules"... I usually burn myself.
Thank you very much for reading! Please leave a like if you enjoyed my writings, it makes me very happy when I see that people appreciate my work! And if you are in the mood and have time, check out my earlier posts as well! They don't really get old, because they are not really about actual market movements, they are rather just thoughts about how things might work. Might. Maybe :)
*****
Eat big fishes. They are dumb and greedy creatures.
Once I received a question whether one should buy or sell now, it is so confusing. As answer I made a post about risk.
And now the whales themselves. Can you calculate their low-scale moves? I don't really think so. Can you trick them? I don't think so. You can't beat or trick an opponent who has the right to change the game's rules, or has the possibility to use unfair moves that you can not use. But you can live with them. In what manner, that depends on the individual.
I think there are three very basic trading styles a crypto investor can follow, and practically all of them are different manners of handling whales. Of course these are totally subjective and made up groups, just my idea...
- First, if you try to day trade / trade on short scale, ride the actual waves like a surfer, then I think you should have a very good knowledge and experience. This is true for any market, and even more so for the crypto market, because it involves much more risk and is much less predictable, often the rules and patterns of markets don't apply to it. That's because it is unregulated and easily manipulated - but I have already written thoughts about that in my previous ideas. But even here in this chaotic and essentially hard-to-predict market, there are periods when the general rules of trading do exist, and therefore you can base a trade on classic trading analysis during these times.
For example before the beginning of this rally there was a relatively flat period in the market after the large collapse. It needed a hit to move. The hit was given to the waiting market, and the direction of this hit was to the upside. This initial pump, and the few ones that followed it, essentially defined the direction, the trend, and overall mood after a flat period. Many pumps and sudden increase of price made small investors happy, then, enthusiastic, then euphoric. This is a kind of "normal", "classic" up-trend happy market which was initiated by a pump as ignition. You could base analysis and calculation on that market. These market periods can be used if you are an experienced trader. And similarly, a falling market with an obvious downtrend and fear can also be used... again, if you are an experienced trader. "Go with the trend, it is your friend" you might hear.
Now we experience a change, and the market is much less predictable, we can see the quite frequent and confusing up-and-down pumps and dumps, it's rather chaotic. You can't base a classic trading style on that. I suppose even the very experienced investors can burn themselves easily. And the confusion is getting clearer and clearer by the day. Not just on the posted charts, which say absolutely contrarian things.
If you look closer and on a bit smaller scale, you can notice that between these frequent and rather violent pumps and dumps the market is getting rather flat. Small investors are afraid to move because of the confison. They need a convincing movement, a direction. Just as at the beginning of this rally, at the end of the flat period. And I think that the convincing movement and the given direction will come soon. Either in a form of one big pump or a series of pumps after each other, or either a large dump or smaller ones following each other. I have already written my opinion about what I think is more likely. Check out my previous miniseries! :)
If dumps come, then there will be a border which devides "correction" from "falling", and "opportunity to buy low" from "opportunity to sell high". I have written detailed ideas about these phenomena as well.
- Then there is the HODL technique. I suppose that people who invest in btc think that it will have a bright future. So if you simply buy somewhere, then you have a good chance to win much money in a few years, regardless of any whales and what they are doing on the smaller and medium scale. But you have to tolerate every up and down, minus and plus, win and loss, and just ignore them, until you reach much higher than where you began to hold. The easiest way is to not check the market so often :)
- And there are people in between. For example those who invested at 6000, and now have 9500. They often have little experience, but know what "trend" and "whales" etc mean, so they somewhat understand the market as it is. They can use common sense and make a decision that they feel and consider right. These people should keep in mind that it is always risky to sell or buy, no matter if it is uptrend or downtrend, you can always make a trade that you will regret, and then you have to wait for a long time to have an opportunity again. So even if you think that NOW it is surely the right time for me to sell / buy, be prepared to be disappointed. That shouldn't make you sad or lose enthusiasm. This is just a part of it, that's all. You have to keep in mind that it is virtually impossible to sell or buy exactly at the top or bottom, even near to it. So it is very likely that you will see missed chances and losses. So this requires a lot of patience. And the ability not to sell lower than where you bought in, because then you will surely book losses... there's the thinking which I followed a few times: "Although I am in loss now, but I am sure the price will go down, and so if I sell now, then I can put everything back on a lower price". Familiar? I always burned myself with that. Always. But maybe it is just unluck. Anyway, price will go up eventually, even if you see big losses at the moment. And you have to be satisfied whit what you won. It can easily happen that you sell with a good sum that you earned, but then you see that you could have achieved much more. Be satisfied with what you have, and be happy. When to be satisfied, when to harvest your grown crop? I suggest you can harvest your winnings when you feel that it is a decent sum. That you can get good use of it. That you would be happy if it just fell into your hands from the skies. When you feel that it makes a difference.
So long story short :)
My rules for myself are:
- dont try to day trade without immense experience
- even the whales have patterns on large scale, so the market does make trends, patterns, and fractals on the large scale, even if it is so chaotic and easily manipulated like crypto
- be patient, always. There always will be another opportunity. Are you in a rush to earn millions? If not, then be patient. It will have good results.
- be satisfied with a decent amount of winnings, and don't look at what you "could have achieved"
- leave a part of your invesent in for a long time, years for example, regardless of how the actual short or middle-scale market moves. So practically, have an amount locked down for hodl if you believe in btc
- never invest more than what you can afford. I personally think like this: first be able to ensure your day-to-day life, absolutely, for 100%. Then spare a decent amount of money, for example which is enough for you or your family to live for 2-3 years without problems even if noone has a work. And then invest. If you can not do this, but you still want to invest, then invest just a little, what you can afford from time to time.
This is not my trading advice ;) Especially not my investment or how-to-live advice.
Just thoughts that I shared.
Essentially these are the rules that I would like to teach to myself, and follow. It is very hard to follow them. But every time I thought that "okay okay, I made these rules myself for myself, based on experience but... buuuuut, NOW!... now I am sure I will do the right thing, regardless of it is against my own rules"... I usually burn myself.
Thank you very much for reading! Please leave a like if you enjoyed my writings, it makes me very happy when I see that people appreciate my work! And if you are in the mood and have time, check out my earlier posts as well! They don't really get old, because they are not really about actual market movements, they are rather just thoughts about how things might work. Might. Maybe :)
*****
Eat big fishes. They are dumb and greedy creatures.