BTC Road Map & Cheat Sheet - BLACK WEEK EDITION - 14 MAR 2020
By Bulgogi_Cheese_Ramyun 14 MAR 2020
BLUF: Expect Volatility as we recover from "Black Week" and consolidate through halving and beyond
C.R.A.P. Analysis:
1) CHART: The chart is modified to accommodate the recovery from the flash crash.
2) RELEVANT FACTORS:
a) Broken Support, Broken Road, Broken Prophecy, Broken Wallets, Broken Hearts: The recent dump down to about $3,8xx USD, the lowest low in 3 years, appears to break historically unbroken support, and violate both the prophecy of growth and the belief that BTC is a safe haven asset. Market manipulation was clear and multiple exchanges showed their dark side during the darkest times, abandoning small investors for whales personal gain. Unregulated markets such as BTC are one of the factors that caused the Great Depression. So much for “digital gold.” It remains a highly volatile speculative tradeable asset. BTC popularity has been permanently damaged this week as investors and traders abandoned it in favor of safer and/or more predictable assets.
b) History & Cycles: This week was a volatile week of historic proportions, the likes of which were last seen in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and/or the Great Depression. While I predicted a bear market, I did not predict a 50% decline in the price of bitcoin. Many analysts and I thought several resistance levels, the pennant, $6,400 or $5K would hold, but this crash shows how volatile bitcoin can be and how severely media can influence investor FUD.
c) Coronavirus: We still have only seen the tip of the iceberg. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Coronavirus a PANDEMIC on 11 MAR 2020. Globally, travel and events of mass gathering are being cancelled at rates never before seen. Still, over the next 3-4 weeks, I expect Covid-19 numbers to multiply many times over in the USA and globally. Supply Chain shortages and CV FUD triggered a global stock sell-off and gold price volatility which are in league with bitcoin volatility. A mix of good and bad coronavirus news are filling inexperienced investors with alternating Hopium and FUD and this is translating into asset price volatility. After sell-off, assets are being held in fiat currencies. Whales may be preparing to transfer wealth to bitcoin, but that transfer may continue for some time, especially if bitcoin, stocks, and gold continue their decline as whales will attempt to purchase at bargain prices. BE CAREFUL NOT TO MISTAKE A DEAD CAT BOUNCE FOR A REVERSAL!
d) Media Influence: - As predicted, U.S. media returned focus on the Coronavirus spread, government inaction, and the global economic impact, spreading FUD amongst investors, and tanking the market yet again.
e) Global Recession: We alternated Dead Cat Bounces and more declines as we continued down the rocky slope beyond Black Monday into an official Bear Market. But it is not over. As indicators mount which are eerily reminiscent of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Bitcoin prices have declined similarly. I believe last week's declines were also "tip of the iceberg" and this week, we saw part of the submerged iceberg. I expect many short-lived "dead cat bounces" as we continue a volatile period with a strong possibility of milder but sustained declines ahead before recovery is complete.
f) Halving - the Halving calculated for 10-12 May 2020 will reduce the available supply of new bitcoin to the market, creating scarcity and resulting in price increase. Historically the BTC price was at a relative low during halvening and the reduced supply is what drove the price of BTC upward significantly after the previous two halvings. The current socioeconomic conditions will reduce the rate at which the halving increases BTC price.
3) ANALYSIS: A flash crash into the $3K range has broken the road. While I would like to call bottom, realistically, the declines may continue until the socioeconomic conditions created by the coronavirus impact improve.
4) PREDICTION: Volatility and uncertainty to continue until news on coronavirus spread & impact improves or massive whale movement, whichever comes first. Current momentum, if sustained, will keep us below $10K through halving, after which, we should start to see significant price increase as the available supply of new BTC declines significantly. Due to the coronavirus impact, stunted economics will reduce the slope of BTC price rise until economic conditions improve.
BLUF: Expect Volatility as we recover from "Black Week" and consolidate through halving and beyond
C.R.A.P. Analysis:
1) CHART: The chart is modified to accommodate the recovery from the flash crash.
2) RELEVANT FACTORS:
a) Broken Support, Broken Road, Broken Prophecy, Broken Wallets, Broken Hearts: The recent dump down to about $3,8xx USD, the lowest low in 3 years, appears to break historically unbroken support, and violate both the prophecy of growth and the belief that BTC is a safe haven asset. Market manipulation was clear and multiple exchanges showed their dark side during the darkest times, abandoning small investors for whales personal gain. Unregulated markets such as BTC are one of the factors that caused the Great Depression. So much for “digital gold.” It remains a highly volatile speculative tradeable asset. BTC popularity has been permanently damaged this week as investors and traders abandoned it in favor of safer and/or more predictable assets.
b) History & Cycles: This week was a volatile week of historic proportions, the likes of which were last seen in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and/or the Great Depression. While I predicted a bear market, I did not predict a 50% decline in the price of bitcoin. Many analysts and I thought several resistance levels, the pennant, $6,400 or $5K would hold, but this crash shows how volatile bitcoin can be and how severely media can influence investor FUD.
c) Coronavirus: We still have only seen the tip of the iceberg. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Coronavirus a PANDEMIC on 11 MAR 2020. Globally, travel and events of mass gathering are being cancelled at rates never before seen. Still, over the next 3-4 weeks, I expect Covid-19 numbers to multiply many times over in the USA and globally. Supply Chain shortages and CV FUD triggered a global stock sell-off and gold price volatility which are in league with bitcoin volatility. A mix of good and bad coronavirus news are filling inexperienced investors with alternating Hopium and FUD and this is translating into asset price volatility. After sell-off, assets are being held in fiat currencies. Whales may be preparing to transfer wealth to bitcoin, but that transfer may continue for some time, especially if bitcoin, stocks, and gold continue their decline as whales will attempt to purchase at bargain prices. BE CAREFUL NOT TO MISTAKE A DEAD CAT BOUNCE FOR A REVERSAL!
d) Media Influence: - As predicted, U.S. media returned focus on the Coronavirus spread, government inaction, and the global economic impact, spreading FUD amongst investors, and tanking the market yet again.
e) Global Recession: We alternated Dead Cat Bounces and more declines as we continued down the rocky slope beyond Black Monday into an official Bear Market. But it is not over. As indicators mount which are eerily reminiscent of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Bitcoin prices have declined similarly. I believe last week's declines were also "tip of the iceberg" and this week, we saw part of the submerged iceberg. I expect many short-lived "dead cat bounces" as we continue a volatile period with a strong possibility of milder but sustained declines ahead before recovery is complete.
f) Halving - the Halving calculated for 10-12 May 2020 will reduce the available supply of new bitcoin to the market, creating scarcity and resulting in price increase. Historically the BTC price was at a relative low during halvening and the reduced supply is what drove the price of BTC upward significantly after the previous two halvings. The current socioeconomic conditions will reduce the rate at which the halving increases BTC price.
3) ANALYSIS: A flash crash into the $3K range has broken the road. While I would like to call bottom, realistically, the declines may continue until the socioeconomic conditions created by the coronavirus impact improve.
4) PREDICTION: Volatility and uncertainty to continue until news on coronavirus spread & impact improves or massive whale movement, whichever comes first. Current momentum, if sustained, will keep us below $10K through halving, after which, we should start to see significant price increase as the available supply of new BTC declines significantly. Due to the coronavirus impact, stunted economics will reduce the slope of BTC price rise until economic conditions improve.
