With the financial crisis looming (No, corona is not yet a financial crisis) There is a good chance we can see the world economy deteriorating throughout 2020, several reports have shown first signs of recovery could only just be showing its face at the start of 2021. Thats why I assume the world stock markets and other broader asset classes (which includes gold) could see a convincing downtrend throughout this year. Bitcoin might be a hedge to centralised economic turmoil and reckless monetary policy (market manipulation) in the long run, but so far it has not the safe have status like gold (safe havens also sell off in crisis btw) nor the regulatory support as stocks. This makes it still very much speculative. I'm a big believer in BTC and have long term target of just shy of 100k and 350k in 2024. Maybe that's too soon, but let's see. Some technicals are just not showing a very positive picture of bitcoin. I'm fairly convinced we could see 2600, will we get to 1200, we will have to see.
Some stuff I see:
BTC has hit lower monthly moving averages every bull market/bear market since its inception. 2012 supported on the monthly 21ema, 2015 supported on the monthly 50ma and we could well see it now drop to the monthly 100ma. This is positioned around $2700. This theory would be in line with decreased volatility due to higher adoption, also known as the exponential bands many people draw.
Weekly and monthly macd (something I base my trades off of) is just not ready to move up. Best case we see a couple of months of consolidation, but as I said, due to the economic situation I just don't see this happening.
If BTC would drop to $2600 it would create a beautiful long term falling wedge, which would be a great continuation pattern.
I guess time will tell.
Happy trading!
Some stuff I see:
BTC has hit lower monthly moving averages every bull market/bear market since its inception. 2012 supported on the monthly 21ema, 2015 supported on the monthly 50ma and we could well see it now drop to the monthly 100ma. This is positioned around $2700. This theory would be in line with decreased volatility due to higher adoption, also known as the exponential bands many people draw.
Weekly and monthly macd (something I base my trades off of) is just not ready to move up. Best case we see a couple of months of consolidation, but as I said, due to the economic situation I just don't see this happening.
If BTC would drop to $2600 it would create a beautiful long term falling wedge, which would be a great continuation pattern.
I guess time will tell.
Happy trading!