(repost due to the original being removed by Tradingview for an illegal link)
Bitcoin has been in a consistent down trend for over 300 days now. With each attempt to rally to new highs even locally it has been rejected over and over again, just to go on and make a new lower high.
We have essentially been stair stepping our way down from 69k to find a bottom for this Bear Market. Each time Bitcoin has built a base, price action has broken to the down side. The most recent base or consolidation is now almost 90 days long which has similar structure of Jan-May 2022 with a length of just over 100 days.
It looks inevitable for BTC to break down with out testing 25.5K again. While the low was in the 17's, the base support is 18.6k while many maintain a higher time frame close below 19.5k is ultra bearish .
How does the HTF for BTC look?
While price action has maintain closing above 19.5k we have also created a higher low for the time being.
There is some divergence building but its mixed. PA making higher lows, MACD Histogram making higher lows but the SRSI making lower highs and the RSI is stuck in a falling wedge .
The 50MA and 100MA have crossed and in the past this signaled the bottom was already in even if we revisited similar lows in the future. If you take the average of the previous 2 crosses and measure until they crossed back up, you get 36 Bars (252 Days) which puts us at May 2023.
When can we get really Bullish or really Bearish?
If BTC closes a weekly candle above 24.4k and confirms I would flip my bias to Bullish .
If BTC closes a weekly candle below 19.3k and confirms I would become even more Bearish .
Everything in between is simply choppy no mans land that changes nothing unless you are Day Trading or Swing Trading the bounces.
Bitcoin has been in a consistent down trend for over 300 days now. With each attempt to rally to new highs even locally it has been rejected over and over again, just to go on and make a new lower high.
We have essentially been stair stepping our way down from 69k to find a bottom for this Bear Market. Each time Bitcoin has built a base, price action has broken to the down side. The most recent base or consolidation is now almost 90 days long which has similar structure of Jan-May 2022 with a length of just over 100 days.
It looks inevitable for BTC to break down with out testing 25.5K again. While the low was in the 17's, the base support is 18.6k while many maintain a higher time frame close below 19.5k is ultra bearish .
How does the HTF for BTC look?
While price action has maintain closing above 19.5k we have also created a higher low for the time being.
There is some divergence building but its mixed. PA making higher lows, MACD Histogram making higher lows but the SRSI making lower highs and the RSI is stuck in a falling wedge .
The 50MA and 100MA have crossed and in the past this signaled the bottom was already in even if we revisited similar lows in the future. If you take the average of the previous 2 crosses and measure until they crossed back up, you get 36 Bars (252 Days) which puts us at May 2023.
When can we get really Bullish or really Bearish?
If BTC closes a weekly candle above 24.4k and confirms I would flip my bias to Bullish .
If BTC closes a weekly candle below 19.3k and confirms I would become even more Bearish .
Everything in between is simply choppy no mans land that changes nothing unless you are Day Trading or Swing Trading the bounces.