Hello everyone,
the price of BTC is at the apex of triangles in the weekly and daily chart, a decision is about to be made, be it bullish or bearish.
I personally expect a bullish movement.
Why are my biases bullish for BTC?
1) seasonality, "the Halloween effect":
statistically October, November and December are good months for the stock market. A bullish movement in the stock market will also positively influence the crypto market.
2) probable dollar correction:
In my previous idea I illustrated how the dollar is in a possible trend reversal, a correction towards testing an important resistance level that has not yet been tested as a possible support. The negative correlation between the dollar and the markets may indicate a positive movement for the stock and crypto market.
3) retest of important supports:
markets move in waves and tend to test important support/resistance levels. In the weekly chart I have highlighted in purple important support levels that have been broken by the bearish movement, which have not yet been retested as possible resistance.
4) retest of moving averages with a large gap between them:
just as price tends to be attracted towards support and resistance levels, so it behaves towards moving averages. As you can see in the weekly chart the price has not retested the moving average lines since April 2022 and a large gap has been created between them. This indicates to us that it is very likely that the price is subject to a trend reversal towards the moving average lines.
5) bullish signs on some indicators:
finally we can encounter bullish divergences between price and trend strength indicators (RSI - MACD); moreover in the STOCH RSI the trend lines have crossed bullish.
What to keep an eye on?
1) price development in smaller time frames: bullish formations can be a confirmation of a possible trend reversal;
2) the breaking of the resistance line in triangles formed in the daily and weekly timeframes.
What to expect?
1) There are no certainties. Markets are not linear but have a chaotic nature, so we must always bear in mind that we are working with probabilities not certainties. Whatever our biases are, they must be fluid, and change as price develops.
2) The upward breakout of triangles. In the daily, the break of the resistance line may indicate a bullish move towards the previous swing highs, 20603 and 22835 and towards a test of the weekly 21 moving average. If these are broken and tested for support, we move to the weekly chart. We can expect a test of the swing high at 24265, a break leads us towards the test of the previous supports 26751 and 29323, in particular the latter also corresponds to the 1.618 retracement level of the last bearish move and the test of the 55 moving average.
3) the downward break of the triangles negates the bullish hypothesis, indicating instead a continuation of the bear trend towards new lows.
We just have to wait and see what price will decide to do.
Opinions and comments are welcome.
Best electric vibes,
Electric Monday.
**This is not financial advice, just opinion and educational content, do your own research**.
the price of BTC is at the apex of triangles in the weekly and daily chart, a decision is about to be made, be it bullish or bearish.
I personally expect a bullish movement.
Why are my biases bullish for BTC?
1) seasonality, "the Halloween effect":
statistically October, November and December are good months for the stock market. A bullish movement in the stock market will also positively influence the crypto market.
2) probable dollar correction:
In my previous idea I illustrated how the dollar is in a possible trend reversal, a correction towards testing an important resistance level that has not yet been tested as a possible support. The negative correlation between the dollar and the markets may indicate a positive movement for the stock and crypto market.
3) retest of important supports:
markets move in waves and tend to test important support/resistance levels. In the weekly chart I have highlighted in purple important support levels that have been broken by the bearish movement, which have not yet been retested as possible resistance.
4) retest of moving averages with a large gap between them:
just as price tends to be attracted towards support and resistance levels, so it behaves towards moving averages. As you can see in the weekly chart the price has not retested the moving average lines since April 2022 and a large gap has been created between them. This indicates to us that it is very likely that the price is subject to a trend reversal towards the moving average lines.
5) bullish signs on some indicators:
finally we can encounter bullish divergences between price and trend strength indicators (RSI - MACD); moreover in the STOCH RSI the trend lines have crossed bullish.
What to keep an eye on?
1) price development in smaller time frames: bullish formations can be a confirmation of a possible trend reversal;
2) the breaking of the resistance line in triangles formed in the daily and weekly timeframes.
What to expect?
1) There are no certainties. Markets are not linear but have a chaotic nature, so we must always bear in mind that we are working with probabilities not certainties. Whatever our biases are, they must be fluid, and change as price develops.
2) The upward breakout of triangles. In the daily, the break of the resistance line may indicate a bullish move towards the previous swing highs, 20603 and 22835 and towards a test of the weekly 21 moving average. If these are broken and tested for support, we move to the weekly chart. We can expect a test of the swing high at 24265, a break leads us towards the test of the previous supports 26751 and 29323, in particular the latter also corresponds to the 1.618 retracement level of the last bearish move and the test of the 55 moving average.
3) the downward break of the triangles negates the bullish hypothesis, indicating instead a continuation of the bear trend towards new lows.
We just have to wait and see what price will decide to do.
Opinions and comments are welcome.
Best electric vibes,
Electric Monday.
**This is not financial advice, just opinion and educational content, do your own research**.