Good morning Traders,
Following my previous analysis, I have updated my chart to show my thoughts on what's happening.
Following the "sign of strength (SOS)" stage, we have seen a re-test of the "last position of support (LPS) stage and have now seen the typical continuation pattern / shape you would expect following the "SOS", where the price is converging before breaking out.
I believe the "Phase E" of the wyckoff was delayed by the re-test of the "LPS", but we are now starting to break out of the top of the range and I would expect volumes to increase and price to increase, probably tomorrow when the market re-opens to the large institutional traders.
We have also seen some of the minor downward trendlines break out upwards.
Full view of chart in comments.
All I keep seeing on other posts is that this is a "BEAR FLAG" or "RISING WEDGE" and price is going to fall to 10-13k, but to draw the flag / wedge trendlines, the line cuts through the price action / candlesticks. In my opinion if you have to do this to "make it fit", this is not a correct trendline and people pass it off with "false breakout" all the time, but a trend / pattern is not a trend / pattern if it is consistently having false break outs!
As always this is not trade advice and is just my own view, so trade at your own risk.
Like, comment and share!
Have a great week and good trading!
GDuB
Following my previous analysis, I have updated my chart to show my thoughts on what's happening.
Following the "sign of strength (SOS)" stage, we have seen a re-test of the "last position of support (LPS) stage and have now seen the typical continuation pattern / shape you would expect following the "SOS", where the price is converging before breaking out.
I believe the "Phase E" of the wyckoff was delayed by the re-test of the "LPS", but we are now starting to break out of the top of the range and I would expect volumes to increase and price to increase, probably tomorrow when the market re-opens to the large institutional traders.
We have also seen some of the minor downward trendlines break out upwards.
Full view of chart in comments.
All I keep seeing on other posts is that this is a "BEAR FLAG" or "RISING WEDGE" and price is going to fall to 10-13k, but to draw the flag / wedge trendlines, the line cuts through the price action / candlesticks. In my opinion if you have to do this to "make it fit", this is not a correct trendline and people pass it off with "false breakout" all the time, but a trend / pattern is not a trend / pattern if it is consistently having false break outs!
As always this is not trade advice and is just my own view, so trade at your own risk.
Like, comment and share!
Have a great week and good trading!
GDuB
Trade closed manually:
My short term wyckoff idea failed, but my long term bullish sentiment is still active, the wyckoff idea was still going until the leading diagonal pattern (which I had also spotted, but was just keeping an eye on) has broken down. This was always a possibility. I closed my trade in significant profits regardless.
I didn't take a short, because I've been too busy as of late, hence no updates, but I have now taken another long position because of various reasons, 1 being that it has now hit the 2017/2018 high of around 18900 again and also the long term bullish trendline and bounced off this. It has also broken back up out of the short term bearish trendline which it has been battling against.
I now believe this is wave 1-2 of the bullish trend and you can see these marked on the chart below:
I didn't take a short, because I've been too busy as of late, hence no updates, but I have now taken another long position because of various reasons, 1 being that it has now hit the 2017/2018 high of around 18900 again and also the long term bullish trendline and bounced off this. It has also broken back up out of the short term bearish trendline which it has been battling against.
I now believe this is wave 1-2 of the bullish trend and you can see these marked on the chart below:
